A Look at Week 14

Time for this week’s football column.  We’ve got crappy teams playing crappy teams, good teams playing crappy teams, and even a couple of games that could be good.  Let’s get started, shall we?

Let’s start with the easy ones:

The Pats will roll over the Bills.  The Bengals will embarrass the Browns if that’s still possible.  The Titans will bring Houston one step closer to the top draft pick (which will be Reggie Bush, and that means he’s playing in Texas.  Ugh.)  The Vikings will continue their improbable playoff run, taking out the Rams.  The Raiders (not as bad as their record) will beat the Jets (hey—on the bright side, if the Texans pick up another win, the Jets are in the running for the top draft pick).  The ‘Skins will take out the Cards (though Arizona could make it interesting at home).  Shaun Alexander will rush for 3 billion yards against San Francisco.  The Chargers will keep winning and smack the Dolphins around.  The Lions are probably better than the Packers, but they’re in such a tailspin right now that Green Bay will beat them in Lambeau.  The Falcons will beat the Saints in a stinker on Monday night. The only reason to watch that one would be to see if Vick puts on a show.  That can be entertaining.  

Now let’s move on to the interesting games (some are interesting anyway).

Bears at Steelers:

The Steelers match up well against the Bears, since their offense can usually get it done, and their defense should be able to give Chicago’s less than stellar offense some problems.  The problem with Pittsburgh is that Big Ben is just not the same lately.  They could surely pull this one off, especially after a tough loss at home to Cincinnati.  I just don’t think the offense will be able to score on Chicago.  At least not enough.  

Bucs at Panthers:

Carolina should essentially wrap up the division with this game.  Chris Simms will still be a player in Tampa, but he’s not going to be able to get it done for them this week.  This should be a pretty good game, but it’s one of those games that could also be a blowout.

Colts at Jags:

The Jaguars are the popular pick to end the Colts’ perfect season, but I just don’t see it happening.  I think they’ll lose to the Chargers and Seahawks (yes, both).  A division team just isn’t going to be able to give them enough of something they haven’t seen.  Jacksonville’s defense is just not going to be able to stop Manning.  He’s playing like a man possessed.  That having been said, if David Garrard can put on a good performance, it should be a fun game to watch.  

Giants at Eagles:

I could have put this one up at the top, but I’ve got some things to say.  I know the Eagles are not good right now.  That’s fine.  But it’s got nothing to do with a Super Bowl hangover.  It’s got something to do with a wide receiver that disrupted an entire season, five Pro Bowl players out for the season, a much-improved division, etc.  Now I’m a die-hard Philadelphia sports fan, and I think the fans there are great.  But the talk about running Andy Reid out of town is ridiculous.  This guy has gotten the Eagles to the playoffs every year since 2000.  I don’t need to go into detail here because we all know it.  But for the ever-impulsive Philly fans, I just want to know a few things.  Do you remember the years of Rich Kotite?  Ray Rhodes?  Anyone?  Hello?  Yeah.  I remember it too.  Remember the years of Buddy Ryan?  That defense that he built was amazing, but what about the offense?  You saw what Randall Cunningham did in Minnesota with players around him.  If Buddy had given any attention to the offense whatsoever, I guarantee you right now we’d have gotten a Super Bowl trophy in the early-mid 90’s.  What about Andy’s teams?  Did you see last year?  That Super Bowl was ours and we lost it on a couple of bad plays.  That’s closer than anyone ever got us, including Dick Vermeil.  Give me a bad year, a long off-season to rest the players, and a high draft pick over a new coach any day of the friggin’ week.  And quit talking about trading up for Reggie Bush, because it’s just not going to happen.  No team in position to take that guy is stupid enough to trade it away.  What exactly would we trade to get up that high?  I’ll be happy with a top-ten pick.  Maybe.  I’ve heard the badmouthing of McNabb, too, and I’m not even going to dignify that garbage.  You want T.O. on your team at the expense of Donovan?  Get out of my face.  

Chiefs at Cowboys:

Kansas City made the AFC West mighty interesting last week.  The Chiefs need this one desperately to stay in the playoff hunt (just like they’ll need every game for the rest of the year).  The Cowboys need it to, but the Chiefs will be too much for them here.

Broncos at Ravens:

If Denver loses this game, forget it.  They’re out.  Forget the division.  They’ll be out of the playoffs.  I’ve got them winning this one, but it comes down to Jake Plummer.  Is he the Plummer of earlier this year, or is he the same as every other year when the pressure is on?  We’ll see.

That about wraps it up for this week.  Enjoy the games, and I’ll be back with you next week.

Week 13: Thoughts and Predictions

Welcome back to the (kind of) weekly football breakdown.  I’ve gone from one post a week to two posts to no posts, so hopefully now I’ll be able to at least get one in here.  But for now, on to the games (picks are underlined):

Packers at Bears:

The Packers may not be quite as bad as their record, but they’re surely not good enough to beat a very hot Chicago team, especially at home.  

Jags at Browns:

Losing Byron Leftwich hurts, but this Garrard kid is no slouch.  He’ll be able to show off what he’s got against the Browns.  This game could be an indicator of what to expect from the Jags as we get into the playoff races.

Vikings at Lions:

I don’t think the Vikings will make the playoffs (they’ll probably have to win four out of the last five games to get in), but they sure have made an impressive run after picking up the pieces of what could have been a disastrous season.  

Titans at Colts:

Please.  If this weren’t a division game, I’d say Tennessee could sneak up on the Colts, but that’s just not going to happen.  Look for Edgerrin James to have a huge game.

Bills at Dolphins:

Yawn.  Buffalo hasn’t won a road game all year, and this will be no exception.  The Dolphins will most likely run all over them.

Bucs at Saints:

New Orleans (Baton Rouge?  San Antonio?) never had a chance this year.  Extenuating circumstances aside, they weren’t all that good to begin with, and they need a new coach.  

Cowboys at Giants:

New York has got to have a sour taste in their mouth after last week’s “triple stomach punch” (as Bill Simmons called it) in Seattle.  The best highlight of that game for me as an Eagles fan and Giants hater was where Shockey was doing the double finger-point at the camera and grinning like a jackass right before the first attempt sailed wide, then whipping his head around and getting confused when the crowd started cheering.  Classic.  That having been said, even with the Cowboys coming off a tough loss last week, they won’t be able to stop the Giants at home.  Tiki Barber will have a big day here in a relatively close game, and then Manning will probably seal the deal midway through the fourth.

Bengals at Steelers:

For some reason, I don’t think the Steelers will be up for this one like Cincy will.  Call it a hunch.  The Steelers were thoroughly steamrolled by Indy on Monday night, while the Bengals are coming off a great four game stretch where they gave the Colts all they could handle.  I see Carson Palmer lighting it up early and going for the sidelines, away from Polamalu.  When the defense is stretched out, they’ll pound out the running game.  This is a good match for the Bengals.  Of course, the defense has got to be better than they were the last time these two teams played.  

Falcons at Panthers:

This looks to be a pretty solid division game with playoff implications.  Atlanta needs this one badly, as the rest of their schedule is not kind (Panthers twice, Bucs, Bears).  I think Carolina will pull it out with a big offensive performance.  They’re due for a big game after a couple of lackluster efforts.

Texans at Ravens:

At least the Ravens’ home fans will have something to cheer about.  Fans of the Texans, meanwhile, well…we won’t say anything about how they’re feeling.  At least they’ll get a high draft pick.  Now to find a coach…

Redskins at Rams:

This is the upset special for the week.  I’m not saying that this Harvard kid Fitzpatrick is the next Kurt Warner for the Rams or anything, but what does he really have to do other than get the ball into the hands of the Rams’ receivers?  I may be stretching here, but with the Redskins’ bad road record and St. Louis’ explosive potential, I think they’ll pull it out.

Cardinals at 49ers:

Who said Arizona would win the NFC West?  That was me?  Oh.  My bad.  

Broncos at Chiefs:

Unless the Kansas City can pull out a win against the red-hot Broncos, this week will be the beginning of the end of their playoff hopes.

Jets at Patriots:

I’m not watching this game, if only because I’m sick of hearing about Tedi Bruschi.  I can appreciate that he came back from a stroke.  I just don’t want to hear about it every ten minutes, and for me he is also the face of the team that crushed my hopes of a Super Bowl trophy last year.

Raiders at Chargers:

San Diego will need to win at least four out of their last five games to get into the playoffs.  I think they’ll do it, and they’ll start by dismantling the Raiders on Sunday night.

Seahawks at Eagles:

This is the first time I’ve actually picked against the Eagles this year, because it causes me pain to see that I actually think they won’t win.  That’s not to say they can’t win.  I just don’t think they will.  Seattle is a very good team (I’m picking them to win the conference), but if the Eagles’ defense actually plays well for the entire four quarters (can’t remember the last time that happened), they could make this one interesting.  I’ll be watching regardless.

So that’s it for this week.  I’d favor you with my updated playoff predictions, but doing it now is almost like shooting fish in a barrel.  I needed to do it a couple of weeks ago to lend my picking any credibility.  But I’ll give you the wild cards, which are still up for grabs:  NFC – Giants (Cowboys win the NFC East—and I just threw up in my mouth a little bit as I typed that), Bucs.  AFC – Chargers, Jags.

A Case for Mixed Martial Arts

This will be the first of two (planned) posts today, so keep an eye out for this weekend’s football preview. First though, I’m going to do what I’ve been talking about for quite some time: I’m going to tell my skeptical friends and readers why the sport of mixed martial arts (known to some as “ultimate fighting”) is not the human cockfight that some think it is.

There are a few main concerns that people have with mixed martial arts competition. There’s the brutality of the sport for sure, but I think a lot of what people have a problem with is aesthetics. Let’s get this out of the way first though: the sport is mixed martial arts, and the organization that is most associated with the sport is the Ultimate Fighting Championship, or UFC. This is much like football is played in the NFL and basketball is played in the NBA. There are actually numerous MMA organizations, with the UFC being the most recognizable in America. I’m saying all of this because it bothers me sometimes when people refer to the sport as “ultimate fighting”. Sure, it’s basically the ultimate in fighting competition, but I don’t see it as the kind of toughman spectacle that this particular moniker implies.

So back to the original subject. To address the brutality concern that some have with the sport, if you find boxing too brutal as well, then mixed martial arts is not for you. But for those that can appreciate a good boxing match, I think there’s something here that you would enjoy. Just for the heck of it, let’s compare how tough each sport is. (Note: I’ll be using rules in the UFC since that’s what I’m most familiar with.) In boxing, there are typically between 10-12 rounds of three minutes each in a big-time fight. In mixed martial arts, there are usually between 3-5 rounds of five minutes each (five rounds for championship fights). This wasn’t always the case, but this isn’t a column about the history of mixed martial arts in America—it’s just about what’s going on now. So I’ll move on. In boxing, if you are knocked down, you’re given a standing 8-count to regain your wits and decide if you can continue to fight. In the UFC, if you’re ever in a position where you can’t intelligently defend yourself, the fight is over. If you’re asking me, this presents a case for MMA being less brutal than boxing. A mixed martial artist may take a kick to the head and go down, but if he doesn’t recover immediately, he’s done. A boxer can take repeated shots to the head, get knocked down, recover, and then take more repeated shots to the head.

Now to be fair, there are a lot more ways of hurting one’s opponent in mixed martial arts. But there’s also less time in which to inflict the damage, and there are so many defensive maneuvers that go largely unnoticed because of the highlights that are typically shown on news programs. There has never been a serious (by that I mean life-threatening or paralyzing) injury or death in the UFC, though I can’t say for sure about mixed martial arts in general (especially unsanctioned bouts).

All this about brutality having been said, there are frequent nasty cuts and gashes that happen. Blood is not uncommon. Now, I’m not going to deny that there are a lot of MMA fans (especially in this country as opposed to somewhere like Japan, where MMA is very popular) who watch specifically to see blood and guys pounding on each other. I am not one of these mouth-breathers, and I don’t think most MMA fans are either.

Mixed martial arts—as the name implies—combines different fighting styles (such as muay thai, Brazilian jiu-jitsu, wrestling, boxing, etc.) and matches well-rounded fighters with each other to see which man can best the other. Some fool street fighter could never step into a fight like this and do any damage. He’d be submitted in under a minute, regardless of how hard he hits. That’s the beauty of this sport. There are so many facets to a fighter’s style that no one uses exactly the same techniques, and there are almost always match-ups for each fighter to exploit in his favor. Everyone’s got their specialty. Some guys are better at standing up and striking. Some are better wrestlers and like to take it to the ground and try to win by either submission or what they call “ground and pound” (a quick definition: getting your opponent in a position where you are able to land a lot of blows and hopefully cause them to have to submit because of that or have the ref stop the fight). Any style can win a fight, but beware to the fighter who is too one-dimensional. So the highlights that you see on commercials and on programs that say the sport is too violent are accurate, but the picture is much bigger. Having followed the sport for just a little while, I’m able to appreciate a fight where two guys get into the octagon and just want to keep the fight on the feet, but I can also enjoy a fight that is spent mostly on the ground. If you know what you’re looking at, the fights are hugely entertaining.

As for aesthetics, some people have a problem with the fights being held in a cage. I can understand that, but I’ll just point out some advantages of the cage over your traditional boxing ring (which is used in Japan’s Pride Fighting Championship). In the cage, there is no chance that a fighter will fall out through the ropes causing injury. With the amount of movement in the cage, this would assuredly happen (and has happened in the aforementioned PFC). Speaking of falling out of the ring, I’ve also seen it happen (in boxing as well) that a fighter is knocked out close to the ropes and falls out, causing further injury. There’s also the question of a fight that’s being fought on the ground. When this happens, a fight could theoretically slide right under the ropes. This doesn’t actually happen because the referee would stop the action and reposition the fighters toward the middle of the ring, but it definitely breaks up the flow of a fight. This is not a problem with the cage.

So that’s what entertains me so much with mixed martial arts. If you’ve ever seen Fight Club (and you’re a guy), you’ve probably thought about how exhilarating it would be to fight somebody. Not because the other guy pissed you off, or what have you. Just to see who would win. It’s the ultimate competition. We talked about it when we were kids—“My dad can beat up your dad”. Don’t tell me you’ve never thought, “I wonder who would win in a fight between ­­­­­_______ and _______.” Sure, I like contact sports. I like movies that happen to have violence in them (none of that Jean-Claude Van Damme crap, but you know—stuff like Sin City and the like). But I also consider myself to be semi-intelligent. I don’t like violence for the sake of violence. That’s not how I view mixed martial arts. It’s a sport, and I like sports.

Don't Ask Me About the Eagles Game

I’m back, and there’s been a lot that’s happened since my last sports post.  Being an Eagles fan, some might think I have a few choice words for Terrell Owens.  I really don’t.  I said what I had to say in the off-season.  I was finished with the guy personally back then.  I was glad when he made plays on the field, but now I say good riddance.  A wide receiver can’t win games by himself, and especially when your superstar quarterback has been hobbled like Donovan McNabb has been. So now we come to a critical spot in the season for the Eagles.  Can the team win with Mike McMahon at the helm?  I think they probably can, but it won’t be easy.  They’ll have a very small margin for error against the Giants this weekend, and honestly if they lose this one, they can pretty much say goodbye to any postseason hopes to which they may still cling.  

But you know what?  That’s okay.  I don’t think they’ll make the playoffs as it stands right now, and not because they’re a bad team.  I think they’re still a good team that’s extremely banged up right now and that has not been able to be mistake-free when they needed to be.  The problem this season is that the NFC East won’t allow them to make up the ground that they need.  I think this may actually be—I won’t say a good thing—but maybe a not-so-bad thing for them in the long run.  It could give the injured players some time to get healthy, and give the healthy players more time to get ready for next season.  It’ll give the coaches and management more time to prepare for next season.  I’m not making excuses for this team, because I think they’ve played well below what they’re capable of (especially defensively), but I think this season has been an aberration.  If you watch the rest of the year, regardless of wins and losses, I think you’ll see a group of players who are in this thing together.  That’s not something you could have said a few weeks ago, and I think that’s probably a big part of why we are where we are right now.  But enough of my home team for now.  Let’s have a look around the league, shall we?

I’ve been calling the Colts semi-overrated all season.  I think this is a very very good team that has had a very very easy schedule up to this point.  That schedule gets a lot tougher down the stretch, but they’ll still probably win 14 games.  Cincinnati is the popular pick to knock them off at home this week, but I’m not so sure.  They can definitely pull it off, but Indy will be up for this one.  I’m seeing the Colts beating the Bengals in a close game.  If you look at the rest of the season, the Colts have Pittsburgh (in Indy), the Jags (in Jacksonville), the Chargers (in Indy), and the Seahawks (in Seattle).  I can see them dropping games against San Diego and Seattle.  That having been said, I still think they’re the favorites for the Super Bowl right now (I know, that’s a tough pick to make, right?).

Speaking of San Diego and Seattle, don’t sleep on these guys.  The Chargers will run off four straight wins over the next four weeks (Buffalo, Washington, Oakland, Miami) before going into what will be a huge final three weeks of the season for them (Indy, K.C., Denver).  If they can get two out of those last three (I think they will), that gives them 11 wins and that’s gotta be enough for a playoff berth—even in the AFC.  Even though Indy is the favorite for the Super Bowl, I’m still sticking with my preseason pick until they’re out of it.

In the NFC, I have no more illusions of the Eagles making the Super Bowl at this point, so I need to get myself an NFC favorite.  The Panthers will make a run at it, and they’re the popular choice right now to take the conference.  I say look out for the Seahawks.  They’ve exorcised the St. Louis demons (losses to the Rams have sent their last two seasons into a tailspin), and at 7-2, they’ve got the Giants, Colts and (potentially) Eagles as tough games left on the schedule.  That puts them at a worst case scenario of 11-5 at the end of the year.  The Panthers, on the other hand, have Chicago, Atlanta (twice), Tampa, and Dallas down the stretch.  I still think they’ll win the NFC South, but Seattle will be on more of a roll toward the end of the season.

There wasn’t much to write about as far as this past week’s games (yes, I’m avoiding talking about the Eagles-Cowboys game—it’s much too painful), so I guess I’ll leave it at that for now.  I’ll be back with this week’s picks later this week (probably Friday), and I’m planning on finally getting my UFC post up this week, leading up to this Saturday’s pay-per-view event.  I’m really looking forward to that one.  Until then, enjoy your sports.

Week 5: I Hate the Cowboys

Let’s get this out of the way. I’m devastated. Hurt. Horrified. Bleeding internally. And I only watched the first quarter and part of the second quarter. This is the first time I’ve thought about the Eagles-Cowboys game in-depth since Sunday, and it’s bringing back the nagging pit in my stomach. It’s not that the Eagles lost. It’s not that they got blown out. It’s that it was the Cowboys. I don’t care how good the Cowboys are. I hate losing to them. Hate. It. It’s the same feeling all Eagles fans have. Back when Philly was awful and had mediocre season after mediocre season, the fans would say, “I know we won’t make the playoffs this year or anything, but can we just take one from the Cowboys?” And keep in mind that this was during their dynasty era. It hurt just as much then as it does now, when the Birds are (yes, still) decidedly better than Dallas. I make no excuses for what happened on Sunday. It’s a fact of life that every team has a throwaway game once a year. Last year it was getting blown out in Pittsburgh. You move on. I don’t mind that. It’s just that it was Dallas. But now there’s the bye week and then the Chargers, who have to be pretty upset after their last-minute defeat at home to the Steelers. Anyway, on to week 5 thoughts.

• Admittedly, the Falcons cut the Pats game closer than I thought, especially without Vick under center. Impressive, but I still think they’re not that good. Of course, in the NFC, that’s pretty relative. I don’t think they’d come close in a game with any of the AFC’s top contenders, this week notwithstanding.
• I watched a lot of the Detroit-Baltimore game, and it was hilarious. I’ve never seen so many penalties in my life. People talk about teams imploding—that’s exactly what happened to the Ravens. They looked like a bunch of idiots out there. There were 21 penalties, which is one short of the NFL record. Quote of the week from my wife: we were watching the game, and she watched Joey Harrington get hurried a couple of times by the Ravens and said, “How long has he been starting?” And that’s exactly the problem. This is his fourth year as a starter and he still looks like a rookie when he’s under pressure. He threw for a whopping 97 yards this week in the win. I would be absolutely shocked if Jeff Garcia didn’t start immediately when he’s healthy. I’ve never been a huge fan of Garcia, but he’s going to be backing up Harrington with the offensive weapons on that team? No way.
• Congratulations to the Packers, who won their first game by absolutely dismantling the Saints. I hope they enjoyed it, because it won’t be happening often this year. I like Favre, but he can only do so much. They lost Najeh Davenport for the year this week, which is another man down on a team that wasn’t even that good with a healthy roster.
• I’m not surprised that Seattle beat the Rams in principle, because they’re the better team. I’m surprised they didn’t kill themselves on the road, because as Shannon Sharpe said on one of the halftime shows this past week, “I wouldn’t bet on Seattle against my high school on the road”. Hilarious. They’ll probably end up winning the awful NFC West, even though the Cards finally have a QB in the mix that can actually win (almost 400 yards against the Panthers D is impressive, even in a loss). I think they exorcised a lot of demons and gained confidence with this win. The question now is whether they’ll keep it up or continue to be haunted by inconsistency.
• If the Cardinals had any idea how to play with a lead, they may have pulled that one out against the Panthers. Maybe they just got too excited with a 10-point lead and figured they could screw around or something. You can’t give up 14 points in the 4th quarter with a 10-point lead. Because that’s a four point loss. Remember? (That just reminded me of this week’s My Name is Earl.)
• Vinny and the Jets will win a few games this year and keep themselves out of the bottom of the barrel, but if Pennington can’t come back 100% next year, they could be in trouble long-term.
• The Colts beat up on yet another hapless team. Allowing 5.9 points per game is very impressive, but let’s keep this in perspective, shall we? As for scoring offenses, they’ve faced teams ranked 31, 22, 23, 15 and 25 in points scored. And the Titans are only ranked 15th because they hung 34 points on the bad Texans defense. This week they face the Rams, ranked 4th. Now we’ll see what the defense is really made of.
• From what I saw of Broncos-Redskins, it was a pretty good game. I always have to wait until the NFC East teams play the Eagles to gauge accurately, though. I know they aren’t going to steamroll the division like they have been over the last four years, and that’s a good thing. I just want to see how good the ‘Skins really are.
• Speaking of the NFC East, it looks like the division is back to being a powerhouse in the league. It’s the only division in the NFL with four winning teams.
• Bengals-Jags was another good one. Every now and then the Jags pull out a good offensive effort, and when they do, they’re very tough to beat. Kudos to Cincy for almost pulling it out.
• I touched on the San Diego-Pittsburgh game in the beginning, and that was a great game. Too bad for the Chargers, who were a 2-pt conversion away from overtime. Of course it would’ve helped if they could stop the Steelers from scoring the game-winning field goal too. Ben Roethlisberger is just a stud. He was solid last year, but didn’t do anything really spectacular (outside of winning every game he played, of course). This year he does everything. He’s a spot-on passer when he needs to be, and just does everything they need him to do. He’ll be a star for a lot of years. And that shot he took to the knee had to hurt. I have two bad knees, and I’ve had that same thing happen to me a couple of times (not in the same context, of course—I’ve just had things do that same thing to my knees—I’ve never actually had a defensive lineman run into them).

So that’s it for now. Stay tuned for this week’s preview in a day or two.

A Super Enormous Football Post

Put on your cleats and buckle your chinstrap—it’s time for the weekly football post.

Before I get into what we learned last week and what we’ll see this week, congratulations to the White Sox for beating down the annoying Red Sox and winning their first postseason series in 88 years. Hopefully the Yankees go down to the Angels next, and the Braves fall to the Astros. That would make for a refreshing postseason if you ask me. Now on to the football.

Let’s start with which teams showed me what this past week.

Eagles: (You knew I was starting here—don’t act surprised.) The Birds showed me this past week that they are capable of anything. I’m not going to stand here and act like Kansas City’s much-improved defense is impenetrable and the Eagles pulled off some kind of miracle by lighting them up, but putting up 31 unanswered points on anyone is pretty impressive. I’m especially referring to the “unanswered” part of that. The Chiefs have a great offense, and the Eagles D just put the clamp on them after the first part of the 2nd quarter. (I could get into how 14 of the 24 first half points aren’t really on the defense, since there was a kickoff return for a touchdown and a fumbled kickoff return that gave KC the ball in the red zone, but I won’t get into that.) You know what else? We saw in that game an example of how much special teams can make or break a team. Let’s have a look: 1. Dante Hall takes a kickoff return back for a touchdown (which admittedly could happen to anyone—that guy is a TD waiting to happen) – 7 pts. 2. Fumbled KO return gives the Chiefs possession in the red zone – 7 pts. 3. Missed extra point – 1 pt. 4. Missed FG because of a bad snap/hold – 3 pts. That’s an 18 point differential just for the Eagles. Of course, the Chiefs had their own fumble in the red zone as well that cost them 7 points. My point in all this? I thought the Eagles were out of it after the kickoff return. Sheldon Brown had just picked off Trent Green and taken it back for a touchdown, and then the missed PAT and the kickoff return sucked out every bit of that momentum. I thought they were finished. But the defense (led by the unbelievable Brian Dawkins and Jeremiah Trotter) dug in their heels; McNabb got dressed in the phone booth (I can’t say enough about McNabb. The guy is playing out of his mind. Three straight 300+-yard games with his injuries? Impossible.); and they pulled it out. I don’t see anyone taking them out when they play like this. I just can’t see it.

Chargers: Wow. They put a beating on the Patriots. You can’t blame injuries (and to their credit, the Pats never do) because New England has pulled out so many wins with such a depleted roster that it’s become routine. For San Diego to smack the Patriots around like that in Foxboro, that’s something. These guys are good. If you haven’t had the pleasure of watching Ladanian Tomlinson play, check out their game against the Steelers on Monday night. I haven’t enjoyed watching a running back this much since Barry Sanders. He’s that good and that slippery. You won’t see his legs parallel to the ground like Sanders used to do, but this guy is just an amazing player.

Lions: I sigh as I write this. Joey Harrington, you’re killing me. A quarterback with some composure puts that game away against the Bucs. I know they’ve got a great defense. But you had them on the ropes. The clock was winding down, you’ve got four great weapons on offense, and yet on the last play of the game, you throw the ball way out of bounds to a guy who’s pretty well-covered. I don’t think I’m going out on a limb here by saying that Jeff Garcia has a pretty good chance of playing when he comes back close to November. And the way this division looks, the Lions may still have a shot at winning it (no one has a winning record in the division right now). Speaking of which…

Vikings: Their big win against the Saints was a fluke. They’re bad. Very bad. Culpepper looks lost out there. I haven’t seen much of their games, but from what I have seen, it’s looking pretty bleak right now. Let’s see what they do after the bye week. I don’t have much hope for them right now. With all the potential the Lions and Bears have, if one of those teams gets their act together, they can stumble into winning the division.

Cardinals: If you look at my NFC preview, I talked about how the line needed to protect Kurt Warner for Arizona to win the division. I should have just said that they need to start Josh McCown. He played decently last season for the Cards, and Warner is just too inconsistent these days. The Cardinals have good receivers, but a sometimes-questionable running game. I know it was just the 49ers, but they showed some spark out there. It may all come crashing down against the Panthers this week, but we’ll see. (I’m guessing Arizona comes back to reality this week.)

Giants: Outside of San Diego (their only loss), the Giants haven’t really played any big defensive teams. That having been said, Eli Manning is for real. It doesn’t hurt having Plaxico Burress out there to catch what most receivers wouldn’t, but still. Their first test should come against a usually solid Broncos defense in week 7. Other than that, the only good defensive teams they play are the Eagles and Redskins. They could put up a lot of points this year.

Jaguars: For the last couple of years, the Jags have been the really good defensive team with a questionable offense. They’d test teams with good offenses, but usually their O didn’t do enough to finish the job. They’ve been the team who, when another up-and-coming team plays them, we say, “Okay, this team has done well so far, but how will they do against the Jags’ defense?” It seems they’re not doing much to get rid of that role this year. The Broncos made pretty short work of them after the first quarter.

Seahawks: The end of regulation in this game was perplexing. I shall summarize: the Seahawks have the ball on about the Redskins’ 30-yard line. The game is tied, and there’s not much time left. What would a team do here if they wanted to win? If you’re asking me, I say throw the ball to the sidelines, or maybe fake to the sidelines and get some yards down the middle and set up the quick spike to stop the clock and kick a field goal. What did they do? Ran up the middle twice for no yardage, eating up the clock to the point where they had to try for a 47-yard field goal with a kicker that had missed from that distance earlier in the game. Huh? So they went to overtime and lost. And they deserved it. They’ll probably lose to the Rams this week too—not because the Rams are better—just because that’s usually what happens. Those games are always entertaining and usually sloppy.

Rams: Speaking of bad play-calling, in the opening drive of the second half, Rams down by ten on the Giants’ six, they called a reverse, which was in turn fumbled. The Giants hadn’t been able to stop the Rams up until then in this drive, and they call a trick play on the six?? That pretty much deflated St. Louis, and they were trounced for the rest of the game. I won’t mention being pass-happy (Marc Bulger was 40/62 for 442 yards) because my team is notoriously the same way. But I will say that it works for them because of the abundance of short-yardage safe passes that they use, which Andy Reid likes to consider running plays. The Rams throw the ball all over the place all the time. Entertaining to watch, but not always effective. Did I mention they play the Seahawks this week and those games are usually sloppy? Yeah.

Alright, before I get to this week, I’m starting to think I should break up my football posts into two separate weekly posts: reactions and predictions. This is getting a bit long. Thoughts anyone?

There are quite a few teams that have something to prove this week. It should provide some interesting matchups, but of course we’ll still get our share of blowouts. I’ve decided to just do a rundown of all the games now, instead of picking and choosing. (All the more reason I should just do two posts.) Let’s have a look, shall we?

New England at Atlanta: There are some who say that the Patriots will fall to the I-still-say-they’re-overrated Falcons. Excuse me while I go into fits of laughter. If you think the Falcons are actually as good as their record, come see me after they are ripped by an angry New England team.

Miami at Buffalo: Do the Bills have a chance in the AFC East? Are the Dolphins slowly becoming the sleeper favorites? This game should begin to provide an answer, and if Miami wins (I think they will in a close one), they’ll have some momentum going into a tough stretch against the Bucs and the Chiefs.

Chicago at Cleveland: I think the Browns are going to start pulling themselves together and make a mediocre season out of what could still be pretty dismal. Romeo Crennel will be a big part of that. The Bears have a shot, but Kyle Orton has really got to step up here. I think the Browns win a squeaker this week, but the advantage would probably go back to the Bears if the game were in Chicago.

Baltimore at Detroit: Will the Detroit fans get behind Joey Harrington? If they want to win, they ought to. He doesn’t do well with adversity, and he’ll have plenty of it on the field against the Ravens’ defense. This would make it an easy pick for the Ravens, but the question of their offense remains. If the defense can score points, they take the game pretty easily. But Detroit always has the potential to put up points with a few big plays. I’m picking the Lions at home, but there are so many if-then scenarios with this one that it’s a tough pick.

New Orleans at Green Bay: The Saints won’t win many games this year, but they’ll win this one. Sorry Packers fans. The Pack could keep it close, and Favre has enough heart to put the team on his back, but even at home against a mediocre team, I don’t see them pulling it out.

Seattle at St. Louis: I already touched on this a bit, and given the fact that the Rams are at home, that’s another factor on their side. It should be fun to watch, though.

Tampa Bay at NY Jets: Getting Vinny Testaverde was a good move to win games now (and we all know that’s what Herm Edwards likes to do). I still don’t know if it’ll be enough. Vinny got banged around quite a bit last year with the Cowboys, so we’ll have to wait and see what he does here. Brooks Bollinger may have something, but he just was not ready last week. I think the Bucs take this one, but the Jets will probably put up a decent fight.

Tennessee at Houston: A battle for third in the AFC South. That’s…pretty much it. The Texans put up a respectable fight against the Bengals last week, so I’ll give them the nod here.

Indy at San Francisco: This one should be brutal. Remember how the Eagles picked apart the 49ers secondary? Yeah. Expect that.

Philadelphia at Dallas: The Cowboys are better this year, but not good enough just yet to contend for the NFC East. The Eagles may not roll over the ‘Boys, but they should beat them decisively. Not having Dat Nguyen is going to hurt Dallas against the run, and you know Brian Westbrook is hungry for some yards after last week.

Washington at Denver: This week, the ‘Skins will be exposed. Or maybe not. Remember when I was talking about how I never know what the Broncos are going to do? I still don’t. They’ve won three pretty convincing games, and I think they’ll take this one too. Maybe.

Carolina at Arizona: It’s the moment of truth for Arizona. They smoked the 49ers. Can they beat a decent team with McCown under center? I think they can, but I’m not sure they will. I’m not quite off their bandwagon just yet to win the NFC West, so I’ll go ahead and pick them at home against the Panthers. If they don’t get it though, it’s over between us.

Cincinnati at Jacksonville: The Jags will once again resume their role as the team who tests the up-and-coming offense. Will they be able to get it done at home? I just don’t see their offense pulling it off against what’s turned out to be a pretty solid defense for the Bengals. You know what else makes the Bengals dangerous right now? They’re confident. It’s amazing what the oft-discussed “swagger” does for a team. It should be a good Sunday night game, and I’m seeing Cincy coming out of this one with the win.

Pittsburgh at San Diego: Here’s your game of the week, folks. This has the makings of a very good game. I think the Steelers’ defense will make it a game, but the Chargers just have too many weapons with Tomlinson, Gates, the steady Drew Brees, and a solid core of receivers. It won’t start out as a high-scoring game, but by the end I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chargers put up a lot of points.

So there you go. Here’s the games you’ll want to check out in each time slot if you can:

1:00 – Pats vs. Falcons, Seahawks vs. Rams.

4:15 – Redskins vs. Broncos, Eagles vs. Cowboys (you know you want to watch Donovan)

In addition, the Sunday and Monday night games look solid. Thanks for sticking with me here, and enjoy another week of football.

Quick Week 4 Preview

Thanks to some computer issues after my trip to Muncie (I'll cover that later), the football post is a bit late this week. Let's get to it, shall we?

It seems the story of last week was injuries. Key players on three AFC East teams went down for good (assuming Chad Pennington can't make it back). What's this mean for these teams? Well, I'm going to wait and see before I say that injuries will impact the Patriots. They always seem to bounce back pretty quickly from that sort of thing. The Bills will be hurting without Takeo Spikes at the heart of their defense. I still think Buffalo will be a force either next year or the year after, but this year will be a learning time for J.P. Losman without winning a whole lot of games. As for the Jets, well I don't know a thing about Brooks Bollinger. That's not necessarily a bad thing, because who knew anything about Tom Brady before he took over for Drew Bledsoe? (That one's for you, Myq.)

And for those wondering, Donovan McNabb is freaking tough. He's got a sports hernia, which is basically an abdominal injury that hurts a lot. He's still got the bruised sternum from the illegal hit he took in week 1, and now he's also got an injured shin. This guy is tough. Abdominal injuries are extremely painful. He'll keep playing because technically the injury can't get worse or cause structural damage. It's just going to hurt a lot. I still think he'll be effective with one of the best offensive lines in the league protecting him, but the teams the Eagles play are going to come after him a lot. McNabb is the third-most frequently blitzed quarterback in the NFL right now, and I'm sure that won't change now that his mobility will be more limited. I'm expecting the Eagles' game against the Chiefs today to be a good one. It'll be a tough one to win, but I think they can pull it out.

The Chargers finally got it going against the Giants this week (although Eli Manning looked pretty impressive). That's the team I picked to win the AFC--not the one that played the first two weeks. We'll have to see what they do against the Pats this week. That will be an interesting game for sure. Also in the AFC West, the unpredictable Broncos just destroyed the Chiefs on Monday night. That was just an embarrassing loss for Kansas City. The Eagles will have their hands full when the angry Chiefs come into Arrowhead this week. Also in the AFC, the Bengals look to be the real deal. Carson Palmer is going to be huge. I've said it before, and I'm saying it again.

Some things to look for this week:

-The teams playing on Sunday and Monday nights are a combined 2-10. To me, that's an argument that the NFL ought to be able to change the Sunday and Monday night games if they look to be stinkers. How about having Eagles-Chiefs and Chargers-Pats instead?

-Why are the Colts running the ball so much with Manning as a quarterback? I know Edgerrin James is good, but you could put the game away early against a team like the Browns. Why run the whole game and give them the opportunity to bust the game wide open with a couple of big plays? (See Cowboys-Redskins from week 2.) I'll be interested to see if they keep that up against Tennesee this week. (My wife won't like it if they do--she's got Manning on her fantasy team.)
-We should be able to see if the Vikings really are any good against the Falcons this week. I've said before that Atlanta is overrated, but they're certainly better than the currently-homeless Saints.

-Will the Ravens pick up win number one this week, or will they take the Jets too lightly and stumble over themselves? Honestly I can see it going either way. I think the Ravens will win it, but it might be closer than some are thinking.

-I think this week is one of those games where Mike Martz shows that he can coach sometimes, as he uses the running game against the Giants.

I guess that's about it for this week. Sorry to those who enjoy the football columns that this one was less in-depth than usual. I'll be back with the full column next week. And I'll even throw in some regular posts this week to boot. Until then, enjoy the football.

(P.S.: for those wondering why I haven't said anything about the Phillies yet, I'm trying not to think about it. We're one game down in the Wild Card race with today's game being the last in the regular season. I'm trying not to get my hopes up too high, as I do that every year and end up being disappointed. But I'll throw in a little "Go Phillies" here for good measure.)

Your Weekly Dose of Football Stuff (Week 3)

Alright, people. It’s Saturday. You know what that means. It’s been a busy day so I’m getting to this a little late. So let’s not waste any time and get down to bidness with observations, reactions, picks, and predictions.

What do you say after a week like last week? Remember how I talked about what was something and what was nothing? Well two of my somethings turned out to be nothings. I was kind of iffy on the Pennington front, but it seems things aren’t quite as serious as they looked. Of course, he didn’t have to throw deep too much against the Dolphins, but still. He looked a lot better. It seems the problem in New York (Jersey) is that the offensive line won’t be able to protect Pennington like that all the time. I could be wrong, but I don’t think they’ll be able to do much against the Jags’ D this week. Of course, if the Jets’ defense can keep it close against Jacksonville’s inconsistent offensive attack, it could be a pretty close game.

My picks from last week completely tanked on me. I went 6-10. Hopefully this week turns out better. Some quick hits:

-Minnesota has looked really bad in their two losses. I mean really really bad. I’m not writing them off completely just yet, especially in the NFC North, but they’ve just got to get some confidence.

-I’m not jumping off the Cardinals and Chargers bandwagon just yet. I’m standing on the tailgate of the Cardinals, and I’ve moved to the middle of the pack with San Diego. The upside with the Chargers is that their division is very tough, and they won’t need to go 12-4 to win it. The Chiefs have definitely got the edge on them right now, though.

-The Lions-Bears game meant one thing to me: Joey Harrington has got to take control of his offense. The quarterback is the leader of the offense. When things started getting rough in there, I thought he might cry. It’s okay to be emotional, but good grief. Five picks? Come on, man. Harrington’s got to pull himself together over the bye week and come back strong. The Bears played very well, but it’s going to take more than that to convince me that they’re going to make any noise. Right now I have no idea what’s going to happen in the NFC North. It’s completely up for grabs for any team other than the Packers.

-Speaking of the Pack, I thought Favre would do one of his famous coming-off-of-a-loss-last-week-and-playing-a-bad-team-this-week victories. He couldn’t even pull that off with the cast of clowns he has around him. They may not get 5 wins this year. In fact, I’d be surprised if they did.

-The Panthers did indeed look good against the Pats, but boy did New England stink up the joint. Maybe one thing caused the other, but I wouldn’t want to be Pittsburgh this week. The Patriots aren’t as good as they were last year, but they’re still tough. Pittsburgh may even still beat them, but I wouldn’t be surprised either way.

-I had myself a good laugh at the expense of Bill Parcells, the Cowboys, and all of their fans. Ha! Couldn’t hold on to a 14-point lead with 4 minutes left? Ha again! Sure, it was the division rival Redskins that beat them, but still.

-Sure, Eli Manning looks better so far. They’re still not going to challenge for the division. I’m seeing the Chargers getting their act together this week. They laid a complete egg against Denver last week in a game they should have won.

-I said before the season started that the Raiders weren’t as good as everyone thought, but I’ve got to say that they got a monster of a first three weeks: Patriots, Chiefs, Eagles. Oh, man. Speaking of Raiders-Eagles, Philly is going to put a hurting on Oakland’s awful secondary. You don’t want to play the Eagles with a bad secondary. Their corners are miserable, and their first string safety is out for the year. Sorry Raiders fans, Moss isn’t going to get you a win here. He’ll get his inevitable catches, but it won’t mean anything (look at what happened when the Eagles played Minnesota last year if you don’t believe me—and that was with a Daunte Culpepper throwing the ball and not pick-prone Kerry Collins).

-This week will be the beginning of the end of the Falcons’ over-hypedness. That’s not a word, but I’m using it anyway. I thought Atlanta would take out the sorry Seahawks, but they couldn’t even do that. I’m telling you, their defense keeps them in games, and Vick wins them. They have no offense without Vick. Sure, there’s two good running backs, but you’ve got to have receivers to keep the defense honest. If Vick’s not back there screwing everyone up, they have no prayer against a decent team. If J.P. Losman can keep his composure (questionable), the Bills win big.

-Tampa is going to be soooooo the bandwagon team after this week.

-Cincy/Chicago will be interesting. This should show which team is for real. I think Palmer is enough of a player to keep the Bengals going, but Kyle Boller hasn’t been a slouch either. I’m going with the Bengals, but a Bears win wouldn’t shock me.

I think that’s about it for now. If you want to know when we actually know something, come see me after week 5. I’ll give you my original picks, and whether they’ve changed. Right now I’m sticking with all of them (even though I’m starting to wonder on a couple).

Week 1 Thoughts, Week 2 Predictions

It’s Saturday, and that means I’m in football mode. So let me give you a few thoughts about the week that was, and the week that will be.

I’ll kick this thing off with the requested Eagles rant. The part that may be surprising is that I’m not annoyed because they lost. The Falcons have started a rivalry here that they are just not good enough to win on a regular basis. Let me just run down the list of things that went wrong for the Eagles on Monday night:

Before the game, run-stopping middle linebacker Jeremiah Trotter was ejected (which was a crock, by the way. Have you ever seen a guy throw a punch with both arms in a grabbing motion?). Donovan McNabb suffered a bruised chest in the first quarter, with the hit resulting in an interception on that play (the hit was highly illegal, by the way—the refs missed a blatant spear that the player was later fined for—ridiculous). David Akers, the second most accurate kicker in NFL history, missed two field goals. They turned the ball over three times. McNabb was just not right after that hit, and it showed—he was off a lot with his passes. And what happened? The Eagles lost by four points.

After the game, Atlanta was celebrating like they’d just won the NFC championship game (which they won’t reach this year). Deangelo Hall (the cornerback who covered Owens all night) got in T.O.’s face and let him have it. I couldn’t believe what I was seeing. Did these guys really think they’d done anything? They beat half a team with an injured QB. They racked up over 200 yards on the ground, sure, but they got into the end zone twice. And they were that happy? Give me a break. And I have to mention Hall again, who thought he’d done the impossible (Madden and Michaels were on that bandwagon as well) by covering T.O. Watching the replays, Owens was open all night. McNabb just couldn’t get the ball to him. You know, I hope I’m wrong and they do make the playoffs. I’d like to see the Eagles just destroy them for the third straight year in the postseason.

There. I feel better now. On to week one thoughts:

The trend is that everyone tends to take week one way too seriously. People start panicking if their team gets beaten, or if a bad team wins people get too excited and start thinking playoffs. To quote the immortal quote machine Jim Mora, “Playoffs? Are you kid—playoffs?” So here’s what meant something and what meant nothing in this first week of the season.

Something:

-Chad Pennington may not be in top form. He fumbled the ball six times, and his throws just didn’t look right. I hope his arm strength isn’t going to be a long-term problem, because if that’s the case, the Jets are in for a long season. It would take them from contender straight into the AFC East basement.

-The Steelers are back. The Titans are frighteningly bad, but a mediocre team does not just handle a team like the Pittsburgh did in week one. Big Ben continued his role of making a few plays and then handing the ball off. He was 9 of 11 on passing attempts, and Willie Parker came up huge. I think that wasn’t a one-time thing from Parker. We’re going to be seeing a lot of him.

-The Packers are that bad. Yeah, they put up 3 points last week. I figured Detroit would win, but 3 points? Geez. They’ll smoke Cleveland this week, and everyone will get all excited about Favre making a comeback, and then we’ll see. They might win one game between then and week 8.

-Carolina could be in trouble. After a lot of inexplicable Super Bowl hype, they lost Kris Jenkins at defensive tackle and got demoralized by the Saints at home. We’ll see how they do against the Pats this week.

Nothing:

-Cowboys over Chargers. If Antonio Gates was in the game for San Diego, they win. Conversation over. And I like how the new and improved defense allowed 24 points without Gates. That having been said, Bledsoe looked pretty good, and Jones is a player. But one win on the road does not a contender make.

-49ers over Rams. The Rams are awful on the road, Mike Martz is somehow still the coach, and the Niners put up 21 of their 28 points in the 2nd quarter. Is that enough for you? If not, watch San Francisco play the Eagles this week. The Rams will probably lose again though.

-The Colts’ defensive performance. It was the Ravens. Give me a break. Their offense is anemic at best. Let’s see what they do against the Rams in week 6 (yeah, that’s pretty much the next time they play another good team. I’ve never seen a schedule like that for a team as good as Indy). And by the way, can someone explain to me how the Eagles couldn’t stop the run last year without Jeremiah Trotter, and now suddenly former-Eagle Corey Simon is a “big run-stopping tackle” for the Colts? They’ll be exposed. You wait and see.

-New Orleans. Yes it was an emotional win. Yes they looked good. Yes it was on the road. It means nothing. Absolutely nothing. I wouldn’t mind seeing the Saints do well this year, but let’s just tell ESPN and everyone else to cool down a bit, shall we?

So that’s about it for now. In week two, check out Jacksonville at the Colts. That should be a good one. That’s probably the game of the week, but it looks like there’s solid games pretty much across the board. Questions and answers for week two: Will Culpepper get his groove back? (I say yes.) Who wasn’t a fluke in week one—Buffalo or Tampa? (I say Buffalo wins this one, but Tampa doesn’t look like a bunch of suckers either.) Are the Rams really that bad? (No, but Mike Martz is. I’m saying he’s gone by week 8. I’d say sooner, but they’ve kept him around this long…) Can Pennington really still throw? (I think so, and I think they show that the Dolphins aren’t as good as last week would have you think.) One more prediction: everyone will talk about how the Falcons take out the Seahawks this week, until later in the season when everyone realizes the Seahawks aren’t really good.

For those of you still reading, thanks for sticking around. Remember, the beginning of the season is fun, but it doesn’t necessarily mean anything. The Pats lost 31-0 in week one before winning the Super Bowl a couple of years ago. That same year, the Eagles went 1-3 and then ended up 12-4. So get excited, but don’t set your expectations too high or low just yet.

2005 NFL Preview, Part Two: NFC

Three sizeable posts in a week? Well, that's just the way it goes around here sometimes. It just fully dawned on me today that football season starts tonight, and now I can't concentrate on anything else. Since I'm at work, that's not the best thing. But the day's almost over, so what better to do than post? First off I think I should mention one thing: I'm picking the Pats to go to the championship game, but nothing would please me more than seeing them lose every game they play this year. I hate the Pats, and I'm tired of their fans. Is that because I'm jealous? Absolutely. I wish everyone was sick of the Eagles (they may be anyway) and hated their fans because we continually gloat about our team winning three of four Super Bowls. I'm just sayin'. On to the picks.

East: Let's just get this out of the way. The Eagles will dominate the division once again. I see no team here that can pose a threat. The Cowboys may take a game from them this year, but even that stands to be questioned. The 'boys replaced Vinny Testaverde at QB with the youth of...Drew Bledsoe? What? Is Bill Parcells trying to make himself feel young? He's bringing in old QBs that used to play for him when his teams were good because that awful blonde dye-job on his hair didn't work? I don't know. But enough about the Cowboys. The Eagles are too good on offense and they are going to be absolutely ridiculous on defense. Jevon Kearse has been in the system for a year now, and he's going to be a monster. Jeremiah Trotter plays like a man possessed and is 1000% better in this defensive scheme than he was with the Redskins. The loss of Corey Simon has zero impact. Hollis Thomas and Darwin Walker are more than suitable to take over, and Sam Rayburn will rotate in along with rookie Mike Patterson (who has looked superb thus far). The loss of Todd Pinkston will show what Greg Lewis has to offer, and I think that will be significant. He's quick and has hands made of super glue. Watch this guy. Throw in L.J. Smith at tight end along with the fullback-looking Stephen Spach for two TE sets, the awesome Brian Westbrook at RB, along with the recently acquired Lamar Gordon for short yardage situations, and this offense will be explosive. And I didn't even mention Donovan F. McNabb. I'll stop now, but you'll hear more about the birds this season (duh). Pick: Eagles.

North: Okay, Detroit people. The Lions, barring injury, have the potential to be a lot of fun to watch this year. Their offense could be insane if Joey Harrington can keep his wits about him. Kevin Jones is going to be great at RB, and I don't even need to say anything about the receivers here. My question is whether their defense will be able to keep up. They did something by adding R.W. McQuarters, but I don't know if it's enough. They've got to be able to rush the passer too. I'm seeing them barely ahead of the sinking ship that is the Green Bay Packers. Brett Favre single-handedly got the Pack into the playoffs with a horrendous, terrible, awful, dreadful defense that has not made improvements for this year. Favre can only win so many shootouts. The Bears hardly warrant mention here. It's not completely their fault, as injuries have plagued them for the last while, and Rex Grossman went down for the season once again. They're young and they'll bounce back, but aside from the glimmer of hope their solid defense will provide, don't expect much. That brings me to the Vikings. On paper, the Vikings look like a lock, and I do think they'll take the division. They've vastly improved their defense with a bunch of offseason acquisitions. Will they be as good as their roster indicates? I think they'll be really good, but not quite as good as everyone thinks (they seem to be the popular pick to come out of the NFC this year). Pick: Vikings.

South: Ah, the South. I honestly have zero idea what to expect from the Saints given their well-documented and tragic situation. I'm not going to dwell on that because there's not much more to say. The salary cap has killed this team. They'll be bad again this year, and probably next year too. And there's not much they can do about it besides draft well and develop what they have. The Falcons will go as Mike Vick goes, despite their very good defense. They won't get as far as they did last year, because a replenished Carolina team will probably come roaring back from a year when they were decimated with injury. Just getting the players back that they lost will help them immensely. It will be an interesting battle to watch, but I don't think the race between Atlanta and Carolina will be as close as it could be. Pick: Panthers.

West: This was just a bad division last year. It may get better this year, though it's hard to say (I guess that's a common theme in predictions, huh?). The Cardinals are everyone's favorite sleeper pick to take the division, and they may very well have a chance. The Seahawks are so back-and-forth that it's hard to predict anything with them. The 49ers will be basement-dwellers. The Rams can be very explosive on offense when Mike Martz doesn't coach the team to death. So what's that leave me with? Pick a team out of a hat (leaving out the 49ers), and that team probably has as good a chance as any other. So here's my "if-then" scenario for the west: If the Cardinals offensive line can protect the increasingly-skittish Kurt Warner, they'll take the division. If the Rams can do anything at all on defense, and if their special teams don't cost them games like they very possibly could, they'll win the division. If the Seahawks can be consistently good and the new players can add to the team chemistry, they'll win the division. The problem with picking the Cardinals here is that if there's one place you don't want to be weak when you have a potentially explosive offense, it's on the offensive line. I don't see the Seahawks making waves like they did last year, though they'll be one of those teams that can beat pretty much anyone if they play their game. The Rams have self-destructive tendencies that go right to the head coach, and I can't see those improving. I sigh as I say this, but I've got to go with the Cardinals. I know they're the popular sleeper pick, but it actually shakes out pretty logically if they're as good as they seem to be. Pick: Cardinals.

Wild Card: This is tough. No one else from the East is coming out, so get them out of here. To me it comes down to St. Louis, Atlanta and............Detroit. Yes, I said it. I admit that the Cards and the Lions have been my sleeper picks for the last two years--not to make the playoffs, but to have at least .500 records--that hasn't happened, so why am I saying they might go to the playoffs, for goodness sake? I don't know. The Falcons aren't as good as everyone thinks they are (and they weren't even that good last year--everyone else was just bad). The Rams are just so volatile. The Lions have given me no good reason to pick them for a wild card spot, but I'm going to anyway. The other spot goes to the Rams. This is such a crapshoot, but it's fun. Picks: Lions and Rams.

Conference: Please. Do I even have to say anything? The Eagles are the team to beat here. They'll probably end up playing Minnesota in a tough conference title game, but they'll pull it out and go on to beat the Chargers in Super Bowl Xtra Large in Detroit, winning their first ever Super Bowl. Andy Reid will solidify his legacy in Philadelphia as the best Eagles coach ever.

So will any of these things happen? Do I have any idea what I'm talking about? Did my inattention during the offseason (due to the anguish of enduring another championship loss) hurt my picks? Only time will tell. All I know is that football season is here and I couldn't be more excited for it. So go watch the Patriots lay waste to the Raiders tonight and get ready for what looks to be a pretty friggin good lineup of games this Sunday and Monday.

2005 NFL Preview, Part One: AFC

To avoid being too long-winded here, I'll just give you a few thoughts in each division and then my prediction for who will win each division, who gets the wild card spots, and who wins the conference.

East: This should be an interesting division to watch. You just can't not pick the Patriots here. I mean seriously, how can you go against them? But watch the Jets, for example. The Jets are an afterthought a lot of times, but after a picking up Laveranues Coles and Doug Jolley, they'll be a force if Curtis Martin can perform like he did last year. The Dolphins are a year or two away, but it'll be interesting to see what Ricky Williams can do after a year of touring the world on his own personal "Up In Smoke" tour. As for the Bills, they'll keep it close, but I can't see them keeping up with the Jets and Pats. J.P. Losman has a shot there, and Willis McGahee is an absolute beast, so they'll be there in a couple of years. This will be a pretty solid division this year, and a really good division in a couple. Pick: Pats.

North: It's a two-team race in the north, with the Steelers and Ravens leading the pack. Romeo Crennel has cleaned house in Cleveland, but there's no quick fix for the Browns. They should be pretty bad this year as the rebuilding begins anew. Cincinnati will probably continue to wallow in mediocrity, though Marvin Lewis has done a pretty good job getting that franchise out of the bottom of the barrell. The big question, contrary to Lewis' M.O., is the defense. The offense figures to be pretty doggone good if Carson Palmer can continue his improvement and Chad Johnson can let his play talk louder than his enormous mouth. The Ravens will talk the talk (you'd better believe it with Deion Sanders and Ray Lewis on the same team), and the defense will be very good. But I can't see Derrick Mason being the guy that puts the Ravens' offense over the top. The offense will be better than last year, since Kyle Boller will be a year better and Todd Heap should be back, but when you match them up with a still-very solid Steelers defense and offense, I've got to go with Pittsburgh. Pick: Steelers.

South: Unless the Jags can put something together on a consistent basis on the offensive side, the Colts will run away with the division. The acquisition of Corey Simon from the Eagles will help, but it'll take more than him to put their defense over the top. He missed the entire preseason and was rotated in and out a lot last season with the other DT's, so if you're asking me, his value is a little inflated. Will he prove me wrong and be able to bring the Colts to glory? I suppose we'll see. The Titans and Texans pose no threat to Indy this year barring some sort of injury to Peyton Manning and all of his receivers, and your guess is as good as mine as to why Steve McNair came back this year. If it's just to play more football, that's great. If he thinks the Titans have a chance, well...I just don't see how they do. Pick: Colts.

West: The Chiefs finally made some personnel changes on defense this year, and it should show. After picking up Kendrell Bell, Sammy Knight and Patrick Surtain, I'm expecting a turn for the better. The question is, is it too late? This offense has been very explosive over the past few years and the defense has squandered countless games. Can the offense keep up what they've done, or are they done? I think they can keep it up enough to contend for the division. The Raiders look good on paper...kind of, but even with Randy Moss Oakland still has Kerry Collins, the interception machine. Also if your defense is anchored by Warren Sapp (whose bark is waaaaay worse than his bite at this point), you're not going to be as good as you think. Losing Doug Jolley is also going to hurt them. I can't see them getting more than eight wins, and they'll be lucky to get that many. I can't figure out what I think of the Broncos for the life of me. That's what happens when Jake Plummer is your quarterback. He can singlehandedly win and lose games, and has done so countless times (unfortunately he usually loses them). The questions for Denver are consistency on offense and whether their defense can bail out the potentially inconsistent offense. Can they? I'm not going to act like I have any idea. I don't see them contending with a strong Kansas City and also a strong San Diego. Speaking of San Diego, they have the chance to be scary good. They're getting back underrated Reche Caldwell from an injury last year, they've still got the best back in the game in LaDanian Tomlinson, Drew Brees will continue to resurrect his career, and the defense is completely solid. Despite a run by Kansas City, I think the Chargers win the division fairly handily. Pick: Chargers.

Wild Card: I'm seeing a tight race like last year for the wild card spots. I think the Jets make it in, but for the second spot I'm just not sure. It'll be between the Ravens, Jags and Chiefs if I'm thinking right. At this point I can see any of the three squeaking by with the second spot. But for the sake of not copping out on a pick, I'll go with the Chiefs. The AFC West will be a tough division, but the Jags need to show they can be consistent and the Ravens need to do something on the offensive side of the ball. I think the Chiefs have done enough on defense to squeeze into the playoffs. Picks: Jets and Chiefs.

Conference Winner: For me it comes down to this: Can anyone beat the Patriots? Well, that all depends. If New England gets homefield, it'll be very tough (which is stating the obvious, given the past few seasons). I can't see a wild card team playing three games on the road against this conference's division winners and beating them all, so let's take them out of the picture right now. While I think the Pats will go deep and probably will end up in the conference title game, I'm seeing San Diego pulling out the conference title. You heard it here first. Pick: Chargers.

My Love-Not Love Relationship With Baseball

Let me first start off by saying that I'm a baseball fan. I love good competitive baseball. I'll watch the Phillies any time I can (living in Indiana), and I'll always be sure and catch the playoffs or sometimes even meaningful pennant race games between other teams. That having been said, I've got a bone to pick with baseball.

The reason people follow teams is because it's so exhilarating to watch a team that you follow win it all (I'm assuming here, mind you, having never seen any team I follow win "the big one"). It's fun to watch the chase, it's fun to see hated foes overcome, and it's fun to bond with millions of people you don't know when you walk down the street and see someone wearing the right kind of jersey, or high-five the stranger next to you when there's a big hit. So what's my problem with baseball? They don't let enough teams play to win the whole thing.

I know that in baseball there are more traditionalists than anywhere else, for whatever reason. They'll always be the ones to cry about how "back in the glory days of baseball" there were two teams who made the playoffs, and the playoffs consisted of the World Series. That's all fine and dandy, but now there are more teams, and there's more money to be made for baseball as a business.

For a pattern that works, let's look at the NFL. I know what those who know me are thinking--I'm a big football fan and I think that every other sport should be like football. Well, to an extent you may be right. I think if every other major sports organization adapted the organizational qualities and policies of the NFL, they would see more fans, better quality of play, and more money. (Let me be perfectly clear that I'm not worried about how much money these owners and such are making--I'm just giving reasons as to why it makes sense to do what I'm talking about here.)

But back to the subject (warning: boring background). The NFL has 32 teams split up into eight divisions of four teams. At the end of the season, 12 teams will make the playoffs. That consists of the eight division winners and two wild card teams from each conference (the conferences are each made up of four divisions). That means that any given group of fans has a 37.5% chance of seeing their team go to the playoffs and at least compete for the title, however slim their hopes may be. In baseball, there are 30 teams split up into six divisions (most divisions have five teams, but for some reason the American League West division has four teams and the National League Central has six--whatever). So at the end of the season, eight teams will make the playoffs (the six division winners, and one wild card team from each league (the National and American Leagues, of course, being split into three divisions apiece). This gives any given group of fans a 26.6% chance of seeing their team compete for the title. So basically if you follow a football team, you've got an 11% better chance to see your team in the playoffs.

Now some would argue that since there are more teams in the playoffs, the quality of play decreases. I say, "who cares?". If that holds true, it will only be so in the first round of the playoffs. Not only that, but if there were more teams who had a chance, it would make the pennant race that much more exciting for more fans. The baseball season is so long that sometimes by the middle of the season, a team that is just okay has almost no hopes of pulling their record up and making the playoffs. What reason do these fans have to diligently follow their teams? Now of course, you've got your St. Louis and your Chicago, and New York and what have you that will always fill up a stadium. But what about Florida? What about Milwaukee? What about all the smaller market teams who are out of the race by the All-Star break? Wouldn't an expanded playoff give them more reason to keep watching?

Another reason an expanded playoff would work for baseball is that we could shorten the regular season. Say you allow one more team into the playoffs from each league. That makes for an extra series and gives the top seed in the league a bye. If you make that series a best-of-five, it allows another team to get a chance, while rewarding the top team with a week of rest. That would also give your teams with a 17-game lead in the division something to play for. (While I'm on the topic of top seeds, baseball really really needs to get rid of the rule that the winner of the All-Star game gets homefield advantage in the World Series. The provision makes absolutely no sense. It's so mind-numbingly dumb that I can't possibly come up with a reason that it's still in place.)

I can hear the arguments against an idea like this. It diminishes the accomplishment of making the playoffs, the week or so of rest is too long, and of course the subject of tradition comes up whenever anyone talks about changing something. The argument of tradition has always bewildered me. Yes, there's something to be said about respecting the past and remembering how it was, but if a sport doesn't evolve, it's going to be left behind. Fans change. The organization should recognize that and act accordingly. Baseball has a lot going for it with the game itself--now the only question is when the people in charge will let the scales fall from their eyes and fix what's wrong internally. There's more I could say on baseball's screwed up organization, but I'll save that for other times.

All that aside, I'd like to address my Phillies. At the time of this writing, the Fightin' Phils have a 1.5 game lead in the wild card race. Every year they make a run at the playoffs only to dash our hopes against the rocks when crunch time comes. Hopefully this year is different. This is the kind of pennant race I really enjoy. It's hard for me to really get into it when it's not a team I'm interested in. Of course, I always like to see the Yankees and the Red Sox lose, I always like to see teams win that you don't usually see in the spotlight (i.e. Arizona), I always like to be apathetic about the Cubs when everyone wants them to win (the only difference between your team never having won and your team never having won in your lifetime is that with the latter, your dad can tell you about the time they won it all). But I just don't get into it like I do when my team is playing. I know the Phillies can take out the Braves in the playoffs (an example of seeing a hated foe overcome). I know they've got a shot if they can just get in. I'll never forget the 1993 season that took my Phillies to the World Series, only to get our hopes crushed by Joe freakin' Carter and a team from Canada of all places.

Sure, if more teams made it to the playoffs it might not change who wins it all. But going for the ride of trying to win it all is a lot of fun.

The Continuing Saga of T.O.

I thought (perhaps foolishly) that once Terrell Owens reported--albeit begrudgingly--to Eagles training camp, there would be maybe a few fireworks, but it would die down with little fanfare after a while. Now it seems that T.O. has been asked to leave for a week because of "undisclosed team issues". Surprising? Not really I suppose. Annoying? Highly. The "team issues" are said to involve an altercation with Andy Reid (the head coach) and Brad Childress (offensive coordinator). As he was leaving yesterday, T.O. said, "If the truth needs to be told, then that's what I'll do," Owens said. "If he [Reid] wants me to be a man about it and have me really go on the air and really tell the people what happened, then I can. It was a difference of opinion." Be a man? Let's just talk about being a man for a minute, and what a man does.

A man lives up to his word. Terrell, last year you signed a contract for $49 million over seven years. It's a foregone conclusion that you probably wouldn't be in Philly for 7 years, and wouldn't see the whole 49 mil. But if you didn't like the contract, why'd you sign it? You say you "outperformed" it? My question is this: how does one outperform $9.5 million? You weren't even playing for two of the three postseason games due to injury. I'm not saying the performances weren't outstanding during the season, and especially the one in the Super Bowl. I've talked about it before. But last year, you made more than 200 times what I make in a year, and my job contributes to making vaccines that save peoples' lives--and I'm happy with my salary. And you talk about feeding your family. You're not even married.

You know what else a man doesn't do? He doesn't throw his teammates and coach under the bus. What good did it do to badmouth McNabb's performance in the Super Bowl? Without Donovan, you would've had Kyle Boller throwing you passes last year in Baltimore. Think you still would've outperformed your contract? And the altercation with Reid and Childress this year--if you've got a beef with the coaches, work it out with the coaches. Did you see what Andy said today? "I'm going to work with T.O. and only T.O." That's what a man says. He doesn't call people out to the media and try to make himself look better. If you want to see men, look no further than the two guys you've inexplicably tried to drag through the mud over the last while: Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid.

Last year you shed tears in the locker room after a game because you were garnering so much attention in the media. You said you felt bad because it took attention away from the team. Do you wonder why the fans booed you at camp when you first came out? We can't figure you out, T.O. We thought you got a bad rap in San Francisco. Now we're not so sure. You were a great teammate, you treated the fans well, you got along with a strict coach, you had a good relationship with the quarterback...Was it all an act last year so that you could make more money this year? Well, if you haven't figured it out yet, I'll tell you again. You won't get a new contract. You won't get more money. You won't get released. You won't get traded. You'll play football for the Eagles or you won't play football. That's pretty much how it's going to be. After this year, you're due a $7.5 million roster bonus. We all know that was worked into the contract so that you and the team could assess how the last couple of years have gone and whether the relationship should continue (if you're not familiar with NFL contracts, roster bonuses are frequently worked into contracts, and when they're not paid out a player becomes a free agent). With the $5 million base salary you're due this year (not including incentives), that's a two year total of $22 million. You can't retire on that? What more do you want?

(By the way, while I'm on the subject of money, Drew Rosenhaus (T.O.'s agent) was on Letterman last night, and was made to look like the fool that he is. So that was entertaining.)

I just don't know how a guy in your situation can look around and still think they're right. I know you've got that weasel Rosenhaus in your ear, but not even players are on your side. I mean players on other teams, too (it's obvious that the Eagles players who actually want to play are fed up with this, even if they're man enough not to drag his name through the mud). Everyone's tired of the act. The Eagles fans, including myself, will cheer you this year when you make plays. We're Eagles fans, and you're an Eagle. But you'll never be on the level of Donovan or Andy, or even Brian Westbrook and Duce Staley. You've lost us off the field. You come strolling into camp wearing camouflage like you're some kind of soldier. You're a millionaire who gets paid to play football. Who are you trying to fool? Well I'll tell you one thing--you're not fooling me. Not anymore.

The T.O. Case, etc.

As a rabid Eagles fan, I felt I had to address this. For those of you not familiar with the situation, Eagles wide receiver Terrell Owens is currently holding out for a new contract with the team. The problem with this is that the Eagles, since head coach/general manager Andy Reid has been with the team, do not restructure contracts. For anyone.

So here we are. T.O. is holding out, and the Eagles won't give him a new contract. The only problem I see here is with Owens. This is not coming from me as a fan, saying, "Why does this guy need more money? He's a millionaire and gets paid to do something fun!" (although I certainly do think that). No, this is purely from a business standpoint. T.O. is only hurting himself. There've been rumblings that he's willing to sit out the entire season if he doesn't get a new contract. If he does so, what does he gain? He signed a 7-year, $49 million contract last year. I will guarantee you right now that there is no way the Eagles offer him a new contract. None. In Philly, you play Andy's way, or you don't play. It's that simple. (This is not a bad thing, by the way. People that play for the Eagles love it. There are players who have left via free agency for more money, then come back after a year for less money--just to play for Andy Reid and the Eagles.)

So let's say he sits out the season. The Eagles play without him and the season's over. Then what? They're going to suddenly realize that they need him and come crawling back? No way. So either he comes back to the team, where he's probably damaged his reputation irreparably among his teammates, or he continues to hold out, or he goes somewhere else. By the way, if he does hold out, the Eagles don't have to pay him. So he loses a year of playing time and a year's salary. That's the way to build up your value. (And if you need money to "feed your family", you can't afford to sit out a year. I hate when athletes say stupid things like that, but that's a topic for another day.) If he tries to go somewhere else, does he think that another team is going to pay him more than the Eagles are paying him now, after sitting out a year and getting into a contract dispute one year after signing the contract? Any team would be insane to do that, and no team would. He'd get signed, sure, but he'd be losing money, which would defeat the original purpose of sitting out. If you're trying to make a point, that's an expensive point to make. So I can't begin to imagine what's going through his head.

I'm not trying to rip T.O. here. He's a great player, and I loved watching him play last year. All this aside, he seems like a genuinely nice guy. I just don't understand the logic. Of course, some credit has to go to his new agent, Drew Rosenhaus. That guy's a pimple on the butt of the NFL if there ever was one. He encourages clients to sit out so that he can play hardball with the teams. Sitting out does no one any good at all.

Baltimore--February 7, 2005 5:40 am

I'm in the Baltimore airport and I just missed my flight. So I've got a little time to scratch down some notes here.

I had planned on doing a Super Bowl blog, detailing what was happening and my fluctuating mental state throughout the game. That didn't pan out, as I was way too into the game to write down anything coherent. But it's all the same anyway. Another year, another heartbreak. I should be used to it now, but every year is worse than the last. But I'll keep coming back. The worst part this year is that the defense let us down, which never happens. Seventeen points in a half?? Never. Of course, the fact that the refs were calling the game like the Pats were the Chicago Bulls in the mid-'90s didn't help (seriously, Jevon Kearse was not double teamed all that much and he never got held? Give me a break). As much as I'd like to, though, I can't blame this one on the zebras. The thing that hurts the most is that we should have won. We only got outplayed because we weren't sharp in the second half. Those picks that Donovan threw--it wasn't anything the Patriots did to mess him up. He just made bad throws. I can't talk about this anymore.

So I guess now I've seen every team I follow lose in the finals of their respective sport to a team that had won it recently. The Phillies in '93 lost to the Blue Jays (who also won in '92). The Flyers in '97 lost to the Red Wings (who won again in '98). The Sixers in '01 lost to the Lakers (who also won in '00, and won again in '02). And now of course my beloved Birds. But I'll be back next year, expecting the best and getting crushed if the worst happens. I think that's what makes Philly fans so unique. After years and years of losing, we still expect to win. We don't hope. We expect it. The analysts will tell you that we expect to lose, and that it disappoints but doesn't surprise us, but how else do you explain the overwhelming ratio of Eagles fans to Patriots fans (that insufferable bunch) in Jacksonville?

That brings me to an interesting point--the Boston fans complain all the time about Yankee fans going around all cocky and obnoxious. Now they're even worse with their two winning teams. This shall not stand with the Football Gods. (There are no Baseball Gods, or else there would be a salary cap.) It's not fair. We had that game in our hands. Should've won it. Frick.

I'm sure I look pretty good right now. I'm riding on Mountain Dew, Vivarin, and five hours sleep in the last two days. And I've still got my McNabb jersey on. No one will look me in the eye. They all just look away when I look up. So to get back to why I'm not on a plane right now, I woke up at 3 am, and arrived at the airport at 4:45 for my 5:30 flight. Normally plenty of time. Problem was, I had a rental car and the place to return the car is 5 miles from the actual terminal. I sat on the shuttle bus for 15 friggin minutes waiting for a driver, and eventually I just ran out of time. So now, instead of going from Baltimore to Charlotte to Indy, I have to go through Pittsburgh on standby. Hopefully that works out. Whatever.

The trip to Delaware: I woke up at 3 am (this seems to be a theme), and actually made my 5:49 flight to O'Hare. In the process, I bashed my knuckle somewhere, though I didn't know it at the time. I got off the plane in Chicago and didn't notice I was bleeding until I looked down and saw my finger dripping onto the carpet. So that was fun. I would've stopped and washed it off, but I had to catch the bus to another terminal, which I soon found out was not running. Luckily, I had about 20 minutes until boarding, and the walk only took about 15 minutes. But anyway, other than that it was pretty uneventful. I did discover, however, that the airport cops in Baltimore have Segways. I'm not even joking. I don't know how they expect to be taken seriously.

You know, even though I spent $200 to come watch the Eagles lose a game they should have won, it was worth it. Even though it kills me. I guess I don't have too much else to say. I have no voice (that's been the case since the first quarter yesterday), and now I'm listening to a Muzak version of "The Way You Move". I keep seeing replays of the game in my head. Somebody shoot me.

A final note before I depress everyone that's reading this: I hope T.O. shut everybody up with how he played yesterday. He was absolutely amazing. It just makes it that much harder to take that it wasn't the receivers that hurt us this year, like it was for the past couple years. The defense and a few bad throws. It's going to take a while to get over this.


9:50 pm: The preceding has been presented in its original form, save it being in longhand. For those of you who read my last post and also watched the game, you saw that what I detailed was happening in the first half, for the most part. If not for one interception in the red zone, the Eagles go up 14-7, and we've got a whole different ball game. I don't think that anyone who comments regularly would give me any flack about what I said before, so that note is for the lurkers who think it was just wishful thinking from a deluded fan. We had that game. We had it.

Super Bowl XL. Detroit. We'll be back.

I Give Up

Alright. I'm sick of it. I've had a lot to do at work all week and I didn't want to get ahead of myself, which is one of the main reasons I didn't post about the Super Bowl much. But I've had enough. I try to turn on ESPN or the NFL Network to get some coverage. What do I hear? What do I see? The Patriots channel. It's all Pats all the time. Sure, they mention T.O. every now and then, and then they say how it won't matter whether he plays or not. So now, my wrath is full. And I'm going to tell you how the Eagles are going to win this game.

-Pressure: The Eagles had the second most sacks in the NFL this year. That was no accident. Sure, the Pats' offensive line is good. But the Eagles' defense is better. They bring too many people from too many places for them all to be picked up effectively. And if you watched the Pats this year, you saw that Tom Brady's weakness is when he doesn't have much time in the pocket, or when he's under pressure. The Eagles are masters of bringing pressure. Yes, the Colts had the most sacks in the league and couldn't get to Tom Brady. But the Colts got all but six of their 45 sacks from the defensive line. Every defensive starter for the Eagles except for SS Michael Lewis has at least one sack. You never know who's coming and where they're coming from.

-Special Teams: The Patriots are at the bottom of the league in coverage for punts and kicks. the Eagles are at the top. Special teams will be huge in this game. And as far as kickers go, David Akers is the second most accurate kicker in league history. He's been playing for five years. He will become the new trendy clutch kicker by the end of this game. Everyone talks about how Vinatieri never misses the big ones, and he doesn't. But neither does Akers.

-Donovan F. McNabb: If you don't know what the "F" stands for, you'll find out Sunday. The Patriots will be saying it all day long. They can't handle a quarterback like McNabb when he's playing his best game. If you throw out the Steelers game (yeah, they got stomped, but everyone has a bad game--unfortunately their bad game came against a good team), you'll see how McNabb has picked apart opponents all year long. A mobile quarterback will give them fits. Especially one so elusive. If he sees a defender coming, there is nobody in the league that can bring him down alone. The only times he gets sacked are when there's two guys that hit him at the same time, or if he's hit from behind. Also, the Eagles' offensive line will be blowing the Pats' D-Line off the ball. If he gets any amount of time--if he makes time for himself even, he'll get his completions and his TD passes. Speaking of which...

-Seondary vs. Receivers: Go ahead and talk about how the Eagles' receivers can't get off the jam. Try jamming Pinkston and Greg Lewis at the line and see what happens when Westbrook, L.J. Smith, or Freddie Mitchell gets open downfield. And that's only if the jam works. Lewis and Pinky are skinny guys, sure, but Pinkston especially has seen the jam before, and he can work with it better now than he could in the past. The Eagles' receivers are faster than the Pats' secondary. Look for the Eagles to go long, and then open up the short game and the run/play-action. As far as the other way around, try sending any of the NE receivers after the Eagles secondary. Everyone talks about how physical the Patriots' defense is. If anyone catches a pass over the middle, they will miss at least one play afterwards, because Brian Dawkins or Michael Lewis will knock them out of their shoes. Sheldon Brown is no slouch either. And if you try going deep on Lito Sheppard, you'll regret it. None of these guys can out-jump the defensive backs like receivers such as Randy Moss. (I won't even mention that the secondary shut down Moss twice this year. Oh, did I just mention that? My bad.) Watch the Eagles front 7 shut down the run and short pass, then take away the long ball.

-Brian Westbrook: I've said it before and I'll say it again. No one in this league can cover him. I don't care how fast the LB's are for the Pats. They aren't as fast as Westbrook. He's shifty, he'll get away from them, and he'll burn them downfield. Look for him to line up at wide receiver a lot. He's number 36.

-NE Linebackers: They have arguably the best LB corps in the league. But if you go long and get them to back off the line, that opens up the run, and it opens up the short passes to TE's. They'll get everyone watching Brian Westbrook, then they'll bang Dorsey Levens up the middle.

I feel better now. From the way I was just talking, you'd think I'm seeing a blowout. I don't. I'm just pissed. And I'm tired of hearing how the Eagles won't make it a game. You watch. I wouldn't talk like this if I wasn't confident. I've watched this team for a lot of years, and I know when they're in trouble. I saw the Steelers game coming a mile away. Here's how the Bowl will go: End of the first half: Pats 14, Eagles 10. Final score: Eagles 23, Pats 17. You'll see a great ending, as the Eagles will kick a field goal in the 3rd quarter, followed by a Pats field goal. Then the Eagles will drive at the end of the 3rd and kick another figgie at the beginning of the fourth. It'll be 17-16 at this point. 2:08 left, Eagles ball, touchdown drive, ballgame. And I'll be in Delaware. Woot.