Alright, people. It’s Saturday. You know what that means. It’s been a busy day so I’m getting to this a little late. So let’s not waste any time and get down to bidness with observations, reactions, picks, and predictions.
What do you say after a week like last week? Remember how I talked about what was something and what was nothing? Well two of my somethings turned out to be nothings. I was kind of iffy on the Pennington front, but it seems things aren’t quite as serious as they looked. Of course, he didn’t have to throw deep too much against the Dolphins, but still. He looked a lot better. It seems the problem in New York (Jersey) is that the offensive line won’t be able to protect Pennington like that all the time. I could be wrong, but I don’t think they’ll be able to do much against the Jags’ D this week. Of course, if the Jets’ defense can keep it close against Jacksonville’s inconsistent offensive attack, it could be a pretty close game.
My picks from last week completely tanked on me. I went 6-10. Hopefully this week turns out better. Some quick hits:
-Minnesota has looked really bad in their two losses. I mean really really bad. I’m not writing them off completely just yet, especially in the NFC North, but they’ve just got to get some confidence.
-I’m not jumping off the Cardinals and Chargers bandwagon just yet. I’m standing on the tailgate of the Cardinals, and I’ve moved to the middle of the pack with San Diego. The upside with the Chargers is that their division is very tough, and they won’t need to go 12-4 to win it. The Chiefs have definitely got the edge on them right now, though.
-The Lions-Bears game meant one thing to me: Joey Harrington has got to take control of his offense. The quarterback is the leader of the offense. When things started getting rough in there, I thought he might cry. It’s okay to be emotional, but good grief. Five picks? Come on, man. Harrington’s got to pull himself together over the bye week and come back strong. The Bears played very well, but it’s going to take more than that to convince me that they’re going to make any noise. Right now I have no idea what’s going to happen in the NFC North. It’s completely up for grabs for any team other than the Packers.
-Speaking of the Pack, I thought Favre would do one of his famous coming-off-of-a-loss-last-week-and-playing-a-bad-team-this-week victories. He couldn’t even pull that off with the cast of clowns he has around him. They may not get 5 wins this year. In fact, I’d be surprised if they did.
-The Panthers did indeed look good against the Pats, but boy did New England stink up the joint. Maybe one thing caused the other, but I wouldn’t want to be Pittsburgh this week. The Patriots aren’t as good as they were last year, but they’re still tough. Pittsburgh may even still beat them, but I wouldn’t be surprised either way.
-I had myself a good laugh at the expense of Bill Parcells, the Cowboys, and all of their fans. Ha! Couldn’t hold on to a 14-point lead with 4 minutes left? Ha again! Sure, it was the division rival Redskins that beat them, but still.
-Sure, Eli Manning looks better so far. They’re still not going to challenge for the division. I’m seeing the Chargers getting their act together this week. They laid a complete egg against Denver last week in a game they should have won.
-I said before the season started that the Raiders weren’t as good as everyone thought, but I’ve got to say that they got a monster of a first three weeks: Patriots, Chiefs, Eagles. Oh, man. Speaking of Raiders-Eagles, Philly is going to put a hurting on Oakland’s awful secondary. You don’t want to play the Eagles with a bad secondary. Their corners are miserable, and their first string safety is out for the year. Sorry Raiders fans, Moss isn’t going to get you a win here. He’ll get his inevitable catches, but it won’t mean anything (look at what happened when the Eagles played Minnesota last year if you don’t believe me—and that was with a Daunte Culpepper throwing the ball and not pick-prone Kerry Collins).
-This week will be the beginning of the end of the Falcons’ over-hypedness. That’s not a word, but I’m using it anyway. I thought Atlanta would take out the sorry Seahawks, but they couldn’t even do that. I’m telling you, their defense keeps them in games, and Vick wins them. They have no offense without Vick. Sure, there’s two good running backs, but you’ve got to have receivers to keep the defense honest. If Vick’s not back there screwing everyone up, they have no prayer against a decent team. If J.P. Losman can keep his composure (questionable), the Bills win big.
-Tampa is going to be soooooo the bandwagon team after this week.
-Cincy/Chicago will be interesting. This should show which team is for real. I think Palmer is enough of a player to keep the Bengals going, but Kyle Boller hasn’t been a slouch either. I’m going with the Bengals, but a Bears win wouldn’t shock me.
I think that’s about it for now. If you want to know when we actually know something, come see me after week 5. I’ll give you my original picks, and whether they’ve changed. Right now I’m sticking with all of them (even though I’m starting to wonder on a couple).
Saturday, September 24, 2005
Saturday, September 17, 2005
Week 1 Thoughts, Week 2 Predictions
It’s Saturday, and that means I’m in football mode. So let me give you a few thoughts about the week that was, and the week that will be.
I’ll kick this thing off with the requested Eagles rant. The part that may be surprising is that I’m not annoyed because they lost. The Falcons have started a rivalry here that they are just not good enough to win on a regular basis. Let me just run down the list of things that went wrong for the Eagles on Monday night:
Before the game, run-stopping middle linebacker Jeremiah Trotter was ejected (which was a crock, by the way. Have you ever seen a guy throw a punch with both arms in a grabbing motion?). Donovan McNabb suffered a bruised chest in the first quarter, with the hit resulting in an interception on that play (the hit was highly illegal, by the way—the refs missed a blatant spear that the player was later fined for—ridiculous). David Akers, the second most accurate kicker in NFL history, missed two field goals. They turned the ball over three times. McNabb was just not right after that hit, and it showed—he was off a lot with his passes. And what happened? The Eagles lost by four points.
After the game, Atlanta was celebrating like they’d just won the NFC championship game (which they won’t reach this year). Deangelo Hall (the cornerback who covered Owens all night) got in T.O.’s face and let him have it. I couldn’t believe what I was seeing. Did these guys really think they’d done anything? They beat half a team with an injured QB. They racked up over 200 yards on the ground, sure, but they got into the end zone twice. And they were that happy? Give me a break. And I have to mention Hall again, who thought he’d done the impossible (Madden and Michaels were on that bandwagon as well) by covering T.O. Watching the replays, Owens was open all night. McNabb just couldn’t get the ball to him. You know, I hope I’m wrong and they do make the playoffs. I’d like to see the Eagles just destroy them for the third straight year in the postseason.
There. I feel better now. On to week one thoughts:
The trend is that everyone tends to take week one way too seriously. People start panicking if their team gets beaten, or if a bad team wins people get too excited and start thinking playoffs. To quote the immortal quote machine Jim Mora, “Playoffs? Are you kid—playoffs?” So here’s what meant something and what meant nothing in this first week of the season.
Something:
-Chad Pennington may not be in top form. He fumbled the ball six times, and his throws just didn’t look right. I hope his arm strength isn’t going to be a long-term problem, because if that’s the case, the Jets are in for a long season. It would take them from contender straight into the AFC East basement.
-The Steelers are back. The Titans are frighteningly bad, but a mediocre team does not just handle a team like the Pittsburgh did in week one. Big Ben continued his role of making a few plays and then handing the ball off. He was 9 of 11 on passing attempts, and Willie Parker came up huge. I think that wasn’t a one-time thing from Parker. We’re going to be seeing a lot of him.
-The Packers are that bad. Yeah, they put up 3 points last week. I figured Detroit would win, but 3 points? Geez. They’ll smoke Cleveland this week, and everyone will get all excited about Favre making a comeback, and then we’ll see. They might win one game between then and week 8.
-Carolina could be in trouble. After a lot of inexplicable Super Bowl hype, they lost Kris Jenkins at defensive tackle and got demoralized by the Saints at home. We’ll see how they do against the Pats this week.
Nothing:
-Cowboys over Chargers. If Antonio Gates was in the game for San Diego, they win. Conversation over. And I like how the new and improved defense allowed 24 points without Gates. That having been said, Bledsoe looked pretty good, and Jones is a player. But one win on the road does not a contender make.
-49ers over Rams. The Rams are awful on the road, Mike Martz is somehow still the coach, and the Niners put up 21 of their 28 points in the 2nd quarter. Is that enough for you? If not, watch San Francisco play the Eagles this week. The Rams will probably lose again though.
-The Colts’ defensive performance. It was the Ravens. Give me a break. Their offense is anemic at best. Let’s see what they do against the Rams in week 6 (yeah, that’s pretty much the next time they play another good team. I’ve never seen a schedule like that for a team as good as Indy). And by the way, can someone explain to me how the Eagles couldn’t stop the run last year without Jeremiah Trotter, and now suddenly former-Eagle Corey Simon is a “big run-stopping tackle” for the Colts? They’ll be exposed. You wait and see.
-New Orleans. Yes it was an emotional win. Yes they looked good. Yes it was on the road. It means nothing. Absolutely nothing. I wouldn’t mind seeing the Saints do well this year, but let’s just tell ESPN and everyone else to cool down a bit, shall we?
So that’s about it for now. In week two, check out Jacksonville at the Colts. That should be a good one. That’s probably the game of the week, but it looks like there’s solid games pretty much across the board. Questions and answers for week two: Will Culpepper get his groove back? (I say yes.) Who wasn’t a fluke in week one—Buffalo or Tampa? (I say Buffalo wins this one, but Tampa doesn’t look like a bunch of suckers either.) Are the Rams really that bad? (No, but Mike Martz is. I’m saying he’s gone by week 8. I’d say sooner, but they’ve kept him around this long…) Can Pennington really still throw? (I think so, and I think they show that the Dolphins aren’t as good as last week would have you think.) One more prediction: everyone will talk about how the Falcons take out the Seahawks this week, until later in the season when everyone realizes the Seahawks aren’t really good.
For those of you still reading, thanks for sticking around. Remember, the beginning of the season is fun, but it doesn’t necessarily mean anything. The Pats lost 31-0 in week one before winning the Super Bowl a couple of years ago. That same year, the Eagles went 1-3 and then ended up 12-4. So get excited, but don’t set your expectations too high or low just yet.
I’ll kick this thing off with the requested Eagles rant. The part that may be surprising is that I’m not annoyed because they lost. The Falcons have started a rivalry here that they are just not good enough to win on a regular basis. Let me just run down the list of things that went wrong for the Eagles on Monday night:
Before the game, run-stopping middle linebacker Jeremiah Trotter was ejected (which was a crock, by the way. Have you ever seen a guy throw a punch with both arms in a grabbing motion?). Donovan McNabb suffered a bruised chest in the first quarter, with the hit resulting in an interception on that play (the hit was highly illegal, by the way—the refs missed a blatant spear that the player was later fined for—ridiculous). David Akers, the second most accurate kicker in NFL history, missed two field goals. They turned the ball over three times. McNabb was just not right after that hit, and it showed—he was off a lot with his passes. And what happened? The Eagles lost by four points.
After the game, Atlanta was celebrating like they’d just won the NFC championship game (which they won’t reach this year). Deangelo Hall (the cornerback who covered Owens all night) got in T.O.’s face and let him have it. I couldn’t believe what I was seeing. Did these guys really think they’d done anything? They beat half a team with an injured QB. They racked up over 200 yards on the ground, sure, but they got into the end zone twice. And they were that happy? Give me a break. And I have to mention Hall again, who thought he’d done the impossible (Madden and Michaels were on that bandwagon as well) by covering T.O. Watching the replays, Owens was open all night. McNabb just couldn’t get the ball to him. You know, I hope I’m wrong and they do make the playoffs. I’d like to see the Eagles just destroy them for the third straight year in the postseason.
There. I feel better now. On to week one thoughts:
The trend is that everyone tends to take week one way too seriously. People start panicking if their team gets beaten, or if a bad team wins people get too excited and start thinking playoffs. To quote the immortal quote machine Jim Mora, “Playoffs? Are you kid—playoffs?” So here’s what meant something and what meant nothing in this first week of the season.
Something:
-Chad Pennington may not be in top form. He fumbled the ball six times, and his throws just didn’t look right. I hope his arm strength isn’t going to be a long-term problem, because if that’s the case, the Jets are in for a long season. It would take them from contender straight into the AFC East basement.
-The Steelers are back. The Titans are frighteningly bad, but a mediocre team does not just handle a team like the Pittsburgh did in week one. Big Ben continued his role of making a few plays and then handing the ball off. He was 9 of 11 on passing attempts, and Willie Parker came up huge. I think that wasn’t a one-time thing from Parker. We’re going to be seeing a lot of him.
-The Packers are that bad. Yeah, they put up 3 points last week. I figured Detroit would win, but 3 points? Geez. They’ll smoke Cleveland this week, and everyone will get all excited about Favre making a comeback, and then we’ll see. They might win one game between then and week 8.
-Carolina could be in trouble. After a lot of inexplicable Super Bowl hype, they lost Kris Jenkins at defensive tackle and got demoralized by the Saints at home. We’ll see how they do against the Pats this week.
Nothing:
-Cowboys over Chargers. If Antonio Gates was in the game for San Diego, they win. Conversation over. And I like how the new and improved defense allowed 24 points without Gates. That having been said, Bledsoe looked pretty good, and Jones is a player. But one win on the road does not a contender make.
-49ers over Rams. The Rams are awful on the road, Mike Martz is somehow still the coach, and the Niners put up 21 of their 28 points in the 2nd quarter. Is that enough for you? If not, watch San Francisco play the Eagles this week. The Rams will probably lose again though.
-The Colts’ defensive performance. It was the Ravens. Give me a break. Their offense is anemic at best. Let’s see what they do against the Rams in week 6 (yeah, that’s pretty much the next time they play another good team. I’ve never seen a schedule like that for a team as good as Indy). And by the way, can someone explain to me how the Eagles couldn’t stop the run last year without Jeremiah Trotter, and now suddenly former-Eagle Corey Simon is a “big run-stopping tackle” for the Colts? They’ll be exposed. You wait and see.
-New Orleans. Yes it was an emotional win. Yes they looked good. Yes it was on the road. It means nothing. Absolutely nothing. I wouldn’t mind seeing the Saints do well this year, but let’s just tell ESPN and everyone else to cool down a bit, shall we?
So that’s about it for now. In week two, check out Jacksonville at the Colts. That should be a good one. That’s probably the game of the week, but it looks like there’s solid games pretty much across the board. Questions and answers for week two: Will Culpepper get his groove back? (I say yes.) Who wasn’t a fluke in week one—Buffalo or Tampa? (I say Buffalo wins this one, but Tampa doesn’t look like a bunch of suckers either.) Are the Rams really that bad? (No, but Mike Martz is. I’m saying he’s gone by week 8. I’d say sooner, but they’ve kept him around this long…) Can Pennington really still throw? (I think so, and I think they show that the Dolphins aren’t as good as last week would have you think.) One more prediction: everyone will talk about how the Falcons take out the Seahawks this week, until later in the season when everyone realizes the Seahawks aren’t really good.
For those of you still reading, thanks for sticking around. Remember, the beginning of the season is fun, but it doesn’t necessarily mean anything. The Pats lost 31-0 in week one before winning the Super Bowl a couple of years ago. That same year, the Eagles went 1-3 and then ended up 12-4. So get excited, but don’t set your expectations too high or low just yet.
Thursday, September 08, 2005
2005 NFL Preview, Part Two: NFC
Three sizeable posts in a week? Well, that's just the way it goes around here sometimes. It just fully dawned on me today that football season starts tonight, and now I can't concentrate on anything else. Since I'm at work, that's not the best thing. But the day's almost over, so what better to do than post? First off I think I should mention one thing: I'm picking the Pats to go to the championship game, but nothing would please me more than seeing them lose every game they play this year. I hate the Pats, and I'm tired of their fans. Is that because I'm jealous? Absolutely. I wish everyone was sick of the Eagles (they may be anyway) and hated their fans because we continually gloat about our team winning three of four Super Bowls. I'm just sayin'. On to the picks.
East: Let's just get this out of the way. The Eagles will dominate the division once again. I see no team here that can pose a threat. The Cowboys may take a game from them this year, but even that stands to be questioned. The 'boys replaced Vinny Testaverde at QB with the youth of...Drew Bledsoe? What? Is Bill Parcells trying to make himself feel young? He's bringing in old QBs that used to play for him when his teams were good because that awful blonde dye-job on his hair didn't work? I don't know. But enough about the Cowboys. The Eagles are too good on offense and they are going to be absolutely ridiculous on defense. Jevon Kearse has been in the system for a year now, and he's going to be a monster. Jeremiah Trotter plays like a man possessed and is 1000% better in this defensive scheme than he was with the Redskins. The loss of Corey Simon has zero impact. Hollis Thomas and Darwin Walker are more than suitable to take over, and Sam Rayburn will rotate in along with rookie Mike Patterson (who has looked superb thus far). The loss of Todd Pinkston will show what Greg Lewis has to offer, and I think that will be significant. He's quick and has hands made of super glue. Watch this guy. Throw in L.J. Smith at tight end along with the fullback-looking Stephen Spach for two TE sets, the awesome Brian Westbrook at RB, along with the recently acquired Lamar Gordon for short yardage situations, and this offense will be explosive. And I didn't even mention Donovan F. McNabb. I'll stop now, but you'll hear more about the birds this season (duh). Pick: Eagles.
North: Okay, Detroit people. The Lions, barring injury, have the potential to be a lot of fun to watch this year. Their offense could be insane if Joey Harrington can keep his wits about him. Kevin Jones is going to be great at RB, and I don't even need to say anything about the receivers here. My question is whether their defense will be able to keep up. They did something by adding R.W. McQuarters, but I don't know if it's enough. They've got to be able to rush the passer too. I'm seeing them barely ahead of the sinking ship that is the Green Bay Packers. Brett Favre single-handedly got the Pack into the playoffs with a horrendous, terrible, awful, dreadful defense that has not made improvements for this year. Favre can only win so many shootouts. The Bears hardly warrant mention here. It's not completely their fault, as injuries have plagued them for the last while, and Rex Grossman went down for the season once again. They're young and they'll bounce back, but aside from the glimmer of hope their solid defense will provide, don't expect much. That brings me to the Vikings. On paper, the Vikings look like a lock, and I do think they'll take the division. They've vastly improved their defense with a bunch of offseason acquisitions. Will they be as good as their roster indicates? I think they'll be really good, but not quite as good as everyone thinks (they seem to be the popular pick to come out of the NFC this year). Pick: Vikings.
South: Ah, the South. I honestly have zero idea what to expect from the Saints given their well-documented and tragic situation. I'm not going to dwell on that because there's not much more to say. The salary cap has killed this team. They'll be bad again this year, and probably next year too. And there's not much they can do about it besides draft well and develop what they have. The Falcons will go as Mike Vick goes, despite their very good defense. They won't get as far as they did last year, because a replenished Carolina team will probably come roaring back from a year when they were decimated with injury. Just getting the players back that they lost will help them immensely. It will be an interesting battle to watch, but I don't think the race between Atlanta and Carolina will be as close as it could be. Pick: Panthers.
West: This was just a bad division last year. It may get better this year, though it's hard to say (I guess that's a common theme in predictions, huh?). The Cardinals are everyone's favorite sleeper pick to take the division, and they may very well have a chance. The Seahawks are so back-and-forth that it's hard to predict anything with them. The 49ers will be basement-dwellers. The Rams can be very explosive on offense when Mike Martz doesn't coach the team to death. So what's that leave me with? Pick a team out of a hat (leaving out the 49ers), and that team probably has as good a chance as any other. So here's my "if-then" scenario for the west: If the Cardinals offensive line can protect the increasingly-skittish Kurt Warner, they'll take the division. If the Rams can do anything at all on defense, and if their special teams don't cost them games like they very possibly could, they'll win the division. If the Seahawks can be consistently good and the new players can add to the team chemistry, they'll win the division. The problem with picking the Cardinals here is that if there's one place you don't want to be weak when you have a potentially explosive offense, it's on the offensive line. I don't see the Seahawks making waves like they did last year, though they'll be one of those teams that can beat pretty much anyone if they play their game. The Rams have self-destructive tendencies that go right to the head coach, and I can't see those improving. I sigh as I say this, but I've got to go with the Cardinals. I know they're the popular sleeper pick, but it actually shakes out pretty logically if they're as good as they seem to be. Pick: Cardinals.
Wild Card: This is tough. No one else from the East is coming out, so get them out of here. To me it comes down to St. Louis, Atlanta and............Detroit. Yes, I said it. I admit that the Cards and the Lions have been my sleeper picks for the last two years--not to make the playoffs, but to have at least .500 records--that hasn't happened, so why am I saying they might go to the playoffs, for goodness sake? I don't know. The Falcons aren't as good as everyone thinks they are (and they weren't even that good last year--everyone else was just bad). The Rams are just so volatile. The Lions have given me no good reason to pick them for a wild card spot, but I'm going to anyway. The other spot goes to the Rams. This is such a crapshoot, but it's fun. Picks: Lions and Rams.
Conference: Please. Do I even have to say anything? The Eagles are the team to beat here. They'll probably end up playing Minnesota in a tough conference title game, but they'll pull it out and go on to beat the Chargers in Super Bowl Xtra Large in Detroit, winning their first ever Super Bowl. Andy Reid will solidify his legacy in Philadelphia as the best Eagles coach ever.
So will any of these things happen? Do I have any idea what I'm talking about? Did my inattention during the offseason (due to the anguish of enduring another championship loss) hurt my picks? Only time will tell. All I know is that football season is here and I couldn't be more excited for it. So go watch the Patriots lay waste to the Raiders tonight and get ready for what looks to be a pretty friggin good lineup of games this Sunday and Monday.
East: Let's just get this out of the way. The Eagles will dominate the division once again. I see no team here that can pose a threat. The Cowboys may take a game from them this year, but even that stands to be questioned. The 'boys replaced Vinny Testaverde at QB with the youth of...Drew Bledsoe? What? Is Bill Parcells trying to make himself feel young? He's bringing in old QBs that used to play for him when his teams were good because that awful blonde dye-job on his hair didn't work? I don't know. But enough about the Cowboys. The Eagles are too good on offense and they are going to be absolutely ridiculous on defense. Jevon Kearse has been in the system for a year now, and he's going to be a monster. Jeremiah Trotter plays like a man possessed and is 1000% better in this defensive scheme than he was with the Redskins. The loss of Corey Simon has zero impact. Hollis Thomas and Darwin Walker are more than suitable to take over, and Sam Rayburn will rotate in along with rookie Mike Patterson (who has looked superb thus far). The loss of Todd Pinkston will show what Greg Lewis has to offer, and I think that will be significant. He's quick and has hands made of super glue. Watch this guy. Throw in L.J. Smith at tight end along with the fullback-looking Stephen Spach for two TE sets, the awesome Brian Westbrook at RB, along with the recently acquired Lamar Gordon for short yardage situations, and this offense will be explosive. And I didn't even mention Donovan F. McNabb. I'll stop now, but you'll hear more about the birds this season (duh). Pick: Eagles.
North: Okay, Detroit people. The Lions, barring injury, have the potential to be a lot of fun to watch this year. Their offense could be insane if Joey Harrington can keep his wits about him. Kevin Jones is going to be great at RB, and I don't even need to say anything about the receivers here. My question is whether their defense will be able to keep up. They did something by adding R.W. McQuarters, but I don't know if it's enough. They've got to be able to rush the passer too. I'm seeing them barely ahead of the sinking ship that is the Green Bay Packers. Brett Favre single-handedly got the Pack into the playoffs with a horrendous, terrible, awful, dreadful defense that has not made improvements for this year. Favre can only win so many shootouts. The Bears hardly warrant mention here. It's not completely their fault, as injuries have plagued them for the last while, and Rex Grossman went down for the season once again. They're young and they'll bounce back, but aside from the glimmer of hope their solid defense will provide, don't expect much. That brings me to the Vikings. On paper, the Vikings look like a lock, and I do think they'll take the division. They've vastly improved their defense with a bunch of offseason acquisitions. Will they be as good as their roster indicates? I think they'll be really good, but not quite as good as everyone thinks (they seem to be the popular pick to come out of the NFC this year). Pick: Vikings.
South: Ah, the South. I honestly have zero idea what to expect from the Saints given their well-documented and tragic situation. I'm not going to dwell on that because there's not much more to say. The salary cap has killed this team. They'll be bad again this year, and probably next year too. And there's not much they can do about it besides draft well and develop what they have. The Falcons will go as Mike Vick goes, despite their very good defense. They won't get as far as they did last year, because a replenished Carolina team will probably come roaring back from a year when they were decimated with injury. Just getting the players back that they lost will help them immensely. It will be an interesting battle to watch, but I don't think the race between Atlanta and Carolina will be as close as it could be. Pick: Panthers.
West: This was just a bad division last year. It may get better this year, though it's hard to say (I guess that's a common theme in predictions, huh?). The Cardinals are everyone's favorite sleeper pick to take the division, and they may very well have a chance. The Seahawks are so back-and-forth that it's hard to predict anything with them. The 49ers will be basement-dwellers. The Rams can be very explosive on offense when Mike Martz doesn't coach the team to death. So what's that leave me with? Pick a team out of a hat (leaving out the 49ers), and that team probably has as good a chance as any other. So here's my "if-then" scenario for the west: If the Cardinals offensive line can protect the increasingly-skittish Kurt Warner, they'll take the division. If the Rams can do anything at all on defense, and if their special teams don't cost them games like they very possibly could, they'll win the division. If the Seahawks can be consistently good and the new players can add to the team chemistry, they'll win the division. The problem with picking the Cardinals here is that if there's one place you don't want to be weak when you have a potentially explosive offense, it's on the offensive line. I don't see the Seahawks making waves like they did last year, though they'll be one of those teams that can beat pretty much anyone if they play their game. The Rams have self-destructive tendencies that go right to the head coach, and I can't see those improving. I sigh as I say this, but I've got to go with the Cardinals. I know they're the popular sleeper pick, but it actually shakes out pretty logically if they're as good as they seem to be. Pick: Cardinals.
Wild Card: This is tough. No one else from the East is coming out, so get them out of here. To me it comes down to St. Louis, Atlanta and............Detroit. Yes, I said it. I admit that the Cards and the Lions have been my sleeper picks for the last two years--not to make the playoffs, but to have at least .500 records--that hasn't happened, so why am I saying they might go to the playoffs, for goodness sake? I don't know. The Falcons aren't as good as everyone thinks they are (and they weren't even that good last year--everyone else was just bad). The Rams are just so volatile. The Lions have given me no good reason to pick them for a wild card spot, but I'm going to anyway. The other spot goes to the Rams. This is such a crapshoot, but it's fun. Picks: Lions and Rams.
Conference: Please. Do I even have to say anything? The Eagles are the team to beat here. They'll probably end up playing Minnesota in a tough conference title game, but they'll pull it out and go on to beat the Chargers in Super Bowl Xtra Large in Detroit, winning their first ever Super Bowl. Andy Reid will solidify his legacy in Philadelphia as the best Eagles coach ever.
So will any of these things happen? Do I have any idea what I'm talking about? Did my inattention during the offseason (due to the anguish of enduring another championship loss) hurt my picks? Only time will tell. All I know is that football season is here and I couldn't be more excited for it. So go watch the Patriots lay waste to the Raiders tonight and get ready for what looks to be a pretty friggin good lineup of games this Sunday and Monday.
Wednesday, September 07, 2005
2005 NFL Preview, Part One: AFC
To avoid being too long-winded here, I'll just give you a few thoughts in each division and then my prediction for who will win each division, who gets the wild card spots, and who wins the conference.
East: This should be an interesting division to watch. You just can't not pick the Patriots here. I mean seriously, how can you go against them? But watch the Jets, for example. The Jets are an afterthought a lot of times, but after a picking up Laveranues Coles and Doug Jolley, they'll be a force if Curtis Martin can perform like he did last year. The Dolphins are a year or two away, but it'll be interesting to see what Ricky Williams can do after a year of touring the world on his own personal "Up In Smoke" tour. As for the Bills, they'll keep it close, but I can't see them keeping up with the Jets and Pats. J.P. Losman has a shot there, and Willis McGahee is an absolute beast, so they'll be there in a couple of years. This will be a pretty solid division this year, and a really good division in a couple. Pick: Pats.
North: It's a two-team race in the north, with the Steelers and Ravens leading the pack. Romeo Crennel has cleaned house in Cleveland, but there's no quick fix for the Browns. They should be pretty bad this year as the rebuilding begins anew. Cincinnati will probably continue to wallow in mediocrity, though Marvin Lewis has done a pretty good job getting that franchise out of the bottom of the barrell. The big question, contrary to Lewis' M.O., is the defense. The offense figures to be pretty doggone good if Carson Palmer can continue his improvement and Chad Johnson can let his play talk louder than his enormous mouth. The Ravens will talk the talk (you'd better believe it with Deion Sanders and Ray Lewis on the same team), and the defense will be very good. But I can't see Derrick Mason being the guy that puts the Ravens' offense over the top. The offense will be better than last year, since Kyle Boller will be a year better and Todd Heap should be back, but when you match them up with a still-very solid Steelers defense and offense, I've got to go with Pittsburgh. Pick: Steelers.
South: Unless the Jags can put something together on a consistent basis on the offensive side, the Colts will run away with the division. The acquisition of Corey Simon from the Eagles will help, but it'll take more than him to put their defense over the top. He missed the entire preseason and was rotated in and out a lot last season with the other DT's, so if you're asking me, his value is a little inflated. Will he prove me wrong and be able to bring the Colts to glory? I suppose we'll see. The Titans and Texans pose no threat to Indy this year barring some sort of injury to Peyton Manning and all of his receivers, and your guess is as good as mine as to why Steve McNair came back this year. If it's just to play more football, that's great. If he thinks the Titans have a chance, well...I just don't see how they do. Pick: Colts.
West: The Chiefs finally made some personnel changes on defense this year, and it should show. After picking up Kendrell Bell, Sammy Knight and Patrick Surtain, I'm expecting a turn for the better. The question is, is it too late? This offense has been very explosive over the past few years and the defense has squandered countless games. Can the offense keep up what they've done, or are they done? I think they can keep it up enough to contend for the division. The Raiders look good on paper...kind of, but even with Randy Moss Oakland still has Kerry Collins, the interception machine. Also if your defense is anchored by Warren Sapp (whose bark is waaaaay worse than his bite at this point), you're not going to be as good as you think. Losing Doug Jolley is also going to hurt them. I can't see them getting more than eight wins, and they'll be lucky to get that many. I can't figure out what I think of the Broncos for the life of me. That's what happens when Jake Plummer is your quarterback. He can singlehandedly win and lose games, and has done so countless times (unfortunately he usually loses them). The questions for Denver are consistency on offense and whether their defense can bail out the potentially inconsistent offense. Can they? I'm not going to act like I have any idea. I don't see them contending with a strong Kansas City and also a strong San Diego. Speaking of San Diego, they have the chance to be scary good. They're getting back underrated Reche Caldwell from an injury last year, they've still got the best back in the game in LaDanian Tomlinson, Drew Brees will continue to resurrect his career, and the defense is completely solid. Despite a run by Kansas City, I think the Chargers win the division fairly handily. Pick: Chargers.
Wild Card: I'm seeing a tight race like last year for the wild card spots. I think the Jets make it in, but for the second spot I'm just not sure. It'll be between the Ravens, Jags and Chiefs if I'm thinking right. At this point I can see any of the three squeaking by with the second spot. But for the sake of not copping out on a pick, I'll go with the Chiefs. The AFC West will be a tough division, but the Jags need to show they can be consistent and the Ravens need to do something on the offensive side of the ball. I think the Chiefs have done enough on defense to squeeze into the playoffs. Picks: Jets and Chiefs.
Conference Winner: For me it comes down to this: Can anyone beat the Patriots? Well, that all depends. If New England gets homefield, it'll be very tough (which is stating the obvious, given the past few seasons). I can't see a wild card team playing three games on the road against this conference's division winners and beating them all, so let's take them out of the picture right now. While I think the Pats will go deep and probably will end up in the conference title game, I'm seeing San Diego pulling out the conference title. You heard it here first. Pick: Chargers.
East: This should be an interesting division to watch. You just can't not pick the Patriots here. I mean seriously, how can you go against them? But watch the Jets, for example. The Jets are an afterthought a lot of times, but after a picking up Laveranues Coles and Doug Jolley, they'll be a force if Curtis Martin can perform like he did last year. The Dolphins are a year or two away, but it'll be interesting to see what Ricky Williams can do after a year of touring the world on his own personal "Up In Smoke" tour. As for the Bills, they'll keep it close, but I can't see them keeping up with the Jets and Pats. J.P. Losman has a shot there, and Willis McGahee is an absolute beast, so they'll be there in a couple of years. This will be a pretty solid division this year, and a really good division in a couple. Pick: Pats.
North: It's a two-team race in the north, with the Steelers and Ravens leading the pack. Romeo Crennel has cleaned house in Cleveland, but there's no quick fix for the Browns. They should be pretty bad this year as the rebuilding begins anew. Cincinnati will probably continue to wallow in mediocrity, though Marvin Lewis has done a pretty good job getting that franchise out of the bottom of the barrell. The big question, contrary to Lewis' M.O., is the defense. The offense figures to be pretty doggone good if Carson Palmer can continue his improvement and Chad Johnson can let his play talk louder than his enormous mouth. The Ravens will talk the talk (you'd better believe it with Deion Sanders and Ray Lewis on the same team), and the defense will be very good. But I can't see Derrick Mason being the guy that puts the Ravens' offense over the top. The offense will be better than last year, since Kyle Boller will be a year better and Todd Heap should be back, but when you match them up with a still-very solid Steelers defense and offense, I've got to go with Pittsburgh. Pick: Steelers.
South: Unless the Jags can put something together on a consistent basis on the offensive side, the Colts will run away with the division. The acquisition of Corey Simon from the Eagles will help, but it'll take more than him to put their defense over the top. He missed the entire preseason and was rotated in and out a lot last season with the other DT's, so if you're asking me, his value is a little inflated. Will he prove me wrong and be able to bring the Colts to glory? I suppose we'll see. The Titans and Texans pose no threat to Indy this year barring some sort of injury to Peyton Manning and all of his receivers, and your guess is as good as mine as to why Steve McNair came back this year. If it's just to play more football, that's great. If he thinks the Titans have a chance, well...I just don't see how they do. Pick: Colts.
West: The Chiefs finally made some personnel changes on defense this year, and it should show. After picking up Kendrell Bell, Sammy Knight and Patrick Surtain, I'm expecting a turn for the better. The question is, is it too late? This offense has been very explosive over the past few years and the defense has squandered countless games. Can the offense keep up what they've done, or are they done? I think they can keep it up enough to contend for the division. The Raiders look good on paper...kind of, but even with Randy Moss Oakland still has Kerry Collins, the interception machine. Also if your defense is anchored by Warren Sapp (whose bark is waaaaay worse than his bite at this point), you're not going to be as good as you think. Losing Doug Jolley is also going to hurt them. I can't see them getting more than eight wins, and they'll be lucky to get that many. I can't figure out what I think of the Broncos for the life of me. That's what happens when Jake Plummer is your quarterback. He can singlehandedly win and lose games, and has done so countless times (unfortunately he usually loses them). The questions for Denver are consistency on offense and whether their defense can bail out the potentially inconsistent offense. Can they? I'm not going to act like I have any idea. I don't see them contending with a strong Kansas City and also a strong San Diego. Speaking of San Diego, they have the chance to be scary good. They're getting back underrated Reche Caldwell from an injury last year, they've still got the best back in the game in LaDanian Tomlinson, Drew Brees will continue to resurrect his career, and the defense is completely solid. Despite a run by Kansas City, I think the Chargers win the division fairly handily. Pick: Chargers.
Wild Card: I'm seeing a tight race like last year for the wild card spots. I think the Jets make it in, but for the second spot I'm just not sure. It'll be between the Ravens, Jags and Chiefs if I'm thinking right. At this point I can see any of the three squeaking by with the second spot. But for the sake of not copping out on a pick, I'll go with the Chiefs. The AFC West will be a tough division, but the Jags need to show they can be consistent and the Ravens need to do something on the offensive side of the ball. I think the Chiefs have done enough on defense to squeeze into the playoffs. Picks: Jets and Chiefs.
Conference Winner: For me it comes down to this: Can anyone beat the Patriots? Well, that all depends. If New England gets homefield, it'll be very tough (which is stating the obvious, given the past few seasons). I can't see a wild card team playing three games on the road against this conference's division winners and beating them all, so let's take them out of the picture right now. While I think the Pats will go deep and probably will end up in the conference title game, I'm seeing San Diego pulling out the conference title. You heard it here first. Pick: Chargers.
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