If you’re a fight fan and a football fan, like I am, this weekend is huge. I’ll be breaking down the UFC event on Saturday night and the Super Bowl in separate posts, so I’ll start with Saturday night here.
The UFC is putting together something that rarely happens in combat sports at all, and even less often in the world of mixed martial arts. It will be the third meeting between “The Natural” Randy Couture and the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, “The Iceman” Chuck Liddell. This will be the rubber match, with Couture having won the first match and Liddell the second. It looks to be a great match, as were the first two (though the second resulted in a first round knockout, the surprise and the significance of the bout made it classic). But first, let’s talk about a few of the undercard matches, shall we? I don’t know much about a few of the fighters, so I’ll predict what I think I know and hazard a guess on what I probably don’t.
Mike Whitehead vs. Keith Jardine
Both fighters are moving down from heavyweight to light heavy, and this prediction is only provided Whitehead has any energy at all. He walked around at about 240 or 250 if I’m not mistaken, and he’ll be cutting to 205 for this fight. If he can do it, by the time the fight comes around, he’ll be a quite a bit heavier than Jardine. I believe he’s working with Billy Rush, which, if this is the case, probably means he’ll be in excellent condition. So I’m taking Whitehead’s heavy hands in this one.
Paul “The Headhunter” Buentello vs. Gilbert Aldana
I don’t know much about the 5-0 Aldana, other than the fact that all of his wins have come by first round knockout, and that he’s fought some less-than-stellar opponents. I have to go with Buentello here, if for no other reason than because I know he has excellent striking ability and his experience far outweighs his younger opponent. But this will definitely be a slugfest that doesn’t go the distance. Someone will get knocked out.
Alessio Sakara vs. Elvis Sinosic
Sakara came out in his UFC debut and dominated Ron Faircloth until a nasty accidental kick to the groin ended the bout in a no contest. The Italian showed great hands, though his ground game is probably not stellar. Sakara has a boxing background, and make no mistake: boxers hit harder than MMA fighters. Sinosic is no slouch; a fact belied by his losing MMA record, but he’s a UFC gatekeeper for a reason. He’s not great, but certainly not top tier. That’s why UFC matchmaker Joe Silva puts him in the octagon against younger, unproven fighters—to see if they can knock him out. I believe Sakara will deliver, and in devastating fashion.
Renato “Babalu” Sobral vs. Mike Van Arsdale
I don’t know much about Van Arsdale other than the fact that he is an outstanding wrestler. He was beaten fairly soundly by Randy Couture, but he hung with The Natural on the mat, which is not easy by any stretch. Babalu couldn’t outwrestle Van Arsdale, but he’s good enough on the ground that he would be very difficult to submit. Combine that with some nasty strikes and it could be a long night for Van Arsdale. (Or a short night, depending on how you look at it.)
Frank Mir vs. Marcio Cruz
I know absolutely nothing about Crus, other than he has one professional fight. Mir, on the other hand, is a former heavyweight champion coming back from a year layoff due to injury. This is a tune up fight that will probably end rather quickly, but it will still be interesting to see how Mir does after a year of being inactive in the octagon.
Brandon “The Truth” Vera vs. Justin Eilers
Vera is a very cocky newcomer who is undefeated in five fights, and Eilers is more of a veteran, but he’s coming off of two straight fairly devastating knockout losses to Paul Buentello and Heavyweight Champ Andrei Arlovski. That having been said, Eilers hits like a freight train and will look to slug it out with Vera. The big question is whether he’ll have his confidence back. Show me a hesitant fighter, and I’ll show you a guy that’s about to lose. That Vera will be confident is a given. Eilers also pretty much has his UFC future and a bigger payday on the line. This is the last fight in his current contract, and if he loses, we probably won’t see him on the big stage for a while. And yet, for some reason I’m going with Vera. Call it a gut feeling.
Branden Lee Hinkle vs. Jeff Monson
I have no idea here, having never seen either man fight. I know Hinkle is a highly touted newcomer, and they’re probably looking to get him a win. Other than that, no clue.
Nick Diaz vs. Joe “Diesel” Riggs
Riggs will be the bigger fighter here, and has fists of dynamite. But Diaz has a granite chin and has only been knocked out once (three years ago, to a guy he’s beaten twice since). I see these two starting off standing, as Diaz always welcomes a slugfest despite being the smaller guy. Diaz is angry after his decision loss to Diego Sanchez, and has been relatively quiet since then for a guy who usually talks a little trash. On the other hand, I think Riggs is taking Diaz a bit lightly. The style matchup favors Riggs slightly, but not as much as he thinks. I think he’ll get Diaz on the ground after being frustrated by not being able to knock him out, and then he’ll start working ground and pound and get caught in a submission. This should be a great fight.
Randy “The Natural” Couture vs. Chuck “The Iceman” Liddell
Here’s what makes this fight tough for me: I never pick against either of these guys. They’re two of the best the sport has ever seen. I know Couture is 43 years old, and Liddell is on a ridiculous roll. Everything points to Liddell being able to stop Couture again. But I think Couture will take it. It may not be a repeat of the first fight, where Liddell underestimated Couture’s strikes and was pounded out. But I think Couture will look to close the distance between the fighters and try to work the clinch and take Liddell down. He won’t be over-anxious like he was the last time. Couture’s pedigree is well documented, so I won’t go into it here. Let it suffice to say he’s an insanely good wrestler with decent strikes and great clinch work. He’s the two-time Heavyweight Champ and two-time Light Heavyweight Champ. I think the thing that makes me pick Couture is that he just has so many ways he can beat an opponent, whereas Liddell is mainly a striker (rumor has it that his ground game is actually pretty good, but I’ve never actually seen it). I don’t mean that as a knock on Liddell, because he’s never needed to go to the ground, and his takedown defense is the best I’ve ever seen. But there’s just something in me that can’t bet against Couture.
So there you have it. The biggest fight of the night gets perhaps my least eloquent explanation. This card has a chance to be a classic. At worst, it would be an average card, but at best, it could just be stellar. The main event alone is worth the price of admission.
I’ll be posting my Super Bowl analysis tonight if all goes well, but we all know how that is sometimes. Anyway, until then, enjoy the fights.
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